BREAKING: The Fed & Treasury Are Running Stealth Yield Curve Control

They're not admitting it … but the data reveals coordinated term premium suppression.

The Mechanics:

• Fed anchors front-end via cuts/guidance

• Treasury floods bills (>30% share) while starving long-end duration

• Result: engineered compression without a declared peg

Confirmation Signals:

• Bill share of debt rising toward 30%+

• Net duration to street falling

• Coupon auctions flat despite deficits

• Long-end vol (MOVE) compressing

This is implicit YCC … holding the curve together while deficits balloon.

If bills keep rising and long vol stays muted, it's coordination in everything but name.