The probability of SBF receiving a pardon skyrockets to 16% Polymarket data attracts attention.... this...

After Trump pardoned CZ, the market's expectations for SBF's possible release have clearly heated up. Data from the two prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, show that the probability of SBF receiving a pardon has risen to 12% and 16%, respectively.

Within just five hours after CZ was pardoned, the probability on Kalshi jumped from 4% to 16%. This speed of change is quite fast, indicating that market participants are rapidly adjusting their judgments about this matter.

However, speaking of which, although the probability has doubled, 16% is still relatively low in absolute terms. The scale and nature of the cases involving SBF are completely different from those of CZ; the range of victims in his fraud case is too broad, and the legal positions are also quite different.