CPI day turns the whole market into a slot machine—one number, one candle, and suddenly your bags are either moon-bound or meeting gravity. Here’s the quick, speculative playbook for #CPIWatch readers:
If CPI prints hot (above expectations):
First move: Risk-off. Dollar flexes, yields bite, and high-beta alts usually get clipped.
Then: BTC dominance often pops as traders hide in the big dog; memecoins and thin-liquidity names feel the heaviest whipsaw.
Tactical idea: Short-lived bounces can be traps; watch perp funding flipping negative and OI resets for the real bottom-fishers.
If CPI cools (below expectations):
First move: Risk-on ignition. #BTC squeezes, but ETH/SOL and quality L2 names often outrun it on beta.
Then: Narrative turns to “soft landing” and liquidity rotates into momentum pockets (AI, #DePIN , restaking).
Tactical idea: Look for funding to rise and spreads to widen; chase leaders, not laggards.
If CPI is “meh” but sticky under the hood:
First move: Chop city. Headline looks fine, composition nags (services/shelter).
Then: Two-way pain as algos fade each other; clean trends wait for the next catalyst.
Tactical idea: Range trade levels; respect liquidation clusters.
3 rules for the print:
First move = surprise vs. consensus.
Second move = what’s inside the basket (services, shelter, energy).
Third move = positioning (#Funding , OI, basis).
Watchlist: BTC dominance, ETH/BTC, SOL leaders, perp funding, OI heatmaps, DXY, and the 10Y vibe.
Trade the reaction—not your prediction. Manage risk, respect velocity, and don’t marry a candle. (Not financial advice.)
