Bitcoin [BTC] still fluctuates about the $110K level, with the long-term holders (LTHs) showing firm conviction while short-term holders (STHs) are slowly entering the market cautiously.
LTHs stand firm
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for LTHs remains solidly in profit, evidence of ongoing faith from experienced investors. While volatility around current levels, the majority of long-term players remain comfortable with unrealized profits, and panic is unlikely unless BTC price falls below $37K — a price point last seen back in early 2024.
Such a healthy base gives a psychological cushion, capping panic sell-offs and maintaining overall sentiment strong.
Cycle maturity hints emerge
The LTH/STH SOPR ratio continues to fall, indicating long-term investors are stemming selling pressure while short-term traders seek to take profits quickly. Historically, such divergences have emerged in late-cycle periods — as in 2017 and 2021 — when speculative frenzy temporarily accelerated prior to wider consolidation.
With the ratio at its lower boundary, STHs may dominate short-term action, initiating a moderate speculative rally prior to the subsequent market reset.
Key leverage and support trends
Bitcoin's STH Realized Price, currently just below $100K, serves as an important support level. Provided that BTC is trading above it, STHs are in profit, preserving near-term bullishness. A break below might, however, prompt more severe corrections.
At the same time, leverage is gradually returning to the market. The estimated leverage ratio has gone up from 0.148 to 0.166, indicating a cautious re-emergence of risk appetite.
The appreciation is contained — not exuberant — indicating that while the traders are feeling the waters, outright speculation has not yet come back. Persistent strength above $110K could, nonetheless, revive confidence in the general market.
