๐จ KDA/USDT - Approaching the End of Macro Wave 3 โ Reversal Imminent?
After nearly 2 years of consistent decline, Kadena (KDA) appears to be in the final stages of its macro corrective structure. Using a blend of Elliott Wave Theory, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Fibonacci tools, and Price Action analysis, there is compelling evidence that we may be forming a generational bottom.
The chart outlines a clean 5-wave Elliott impulse to the downside. With Wave 3 nearing completion in a historically strong demand zone ($0.06โ$0.03), the probability of a long-term trend reversal is increasing.
This zone also aligns with:
A full 2.618 Fibonacci extension,
Prior accumulation levels,
A potential liquidity sweep below Wave 3,
Oversold market conditions likely visible on higher timeframes (RSI/MACD divergence).
On the fundamentals side, Kadena continues to innovate with its high-throughput PoW Chainweb architecture, human-readable smart contracts via Pact, and growing DeFi infrastructure. It remains one of the most undervalued layer-1s in the market with zero major security exploits since launch.
๐ฎ If the reversal confirms, long-term targets lie at:
$1.25 (0.5 Fib Retracement)
$7.97 (prior high)
$222 (1.618 macro extension, multi-year projection)
This setup may not play out overnight, but it's the type of structure that smart money patiently builds positions into, while retail fears the bottom.
๐ 1. Elliott Wave Theory Confluence
Looking at the macro Elliott Wave structure:
๐น A clear 5-wave impulsive decline appears to be forming:
Wave 1 & 2 have already played out.
Wave 3, being the most aggressive, is complete or near completion.
Wave 4 retracement was shallow and corrective (possibly a bear flag/pennant).
Wave 5 is projected to complete with a final leg lowerโ potential bottom expected before a strong reversal.
๐น Post wave 5, an ABC corrective wave or a larger impulsive reversal is projected (labeled on chart), suggesting a macro trend shift.
๐ง 2. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
๐ฐ Accumulation Zones:
Price is hovering in a demand zone (between $0.06 - $0.25).
This area has high probability of institutional accumulation as retail sells into fear.
๐ Liquidity Sweeps:
Recent price action shows a sharp move down, likely a liquidity grab below previous swing lows (a classic SMC manipulation before reversal).
The anticipated "spring" move from this zone aligns with Wyckoff accumulation patterns.
๐ Break of Structure (BoS):
A break above the corrective structure post-wave 5 would confirm a bullish market structure shift.
๐ 3. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension
๐น Fibonacci Extension:
Wave 3 extension seems to have reached the 2.618% level, which is a textbook Elliott wave projection level.
This provides high confluence that Wave 5 bottom may be close.
๐น Fibonacci Retracement Targets:
Retracement to 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci zone (~$1.25 - $7.97) expected in post-wave rally.
The ultimate 1.618 extension target (~$222) could play out if a macro bull cycle aligns, possibly by 2029.
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ 4. Price Action Analysis
๐ Bearish Channel Breakdown:
Price has followed a descending channel and is nearing the lower boundary.
False breakdowns often result in violent reversals.
๐ Bullish Divergence (likely on RSI):
If RSI or other momentum indicators show divergence, this adds confirmation for a reversal setup.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $0.3439, $1.25, $7.97
Support: $0.13, $0.06, $0.03
A break and hold above $1.25 could signal the start of a macro uptrend.
๐ฎ Final Thoughts
๐ We're likely nearing the end of a macro bearish cycle (Wave 3).
๐ผ With institutional accumulation signs, Fibonacci confluence, and solid fundamentals**, KDA presents a strong asymmetric opportunity.
๐งจ If Wave 5 completes near $0.06 - $0.03, the upside potential toward $7.97 (first macro target) and possibly $222 (1.618 extension) offers high R/R (risk/reward) for long-term investors.
โ ๏ธ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
#KDA #KDAUSDT #Kadena #CryptoAnalysis #ElliottWave