ETF Outflows Spike Before Powell. Is Crypto Bracing For One More Leg Down

Spot $BTC and $ETH ETFs showed clear risk off behavior ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech. Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 363.1 million in net outflows, led by FBTC with 276.7 million, ARKB with 52.3 million, GBTC with 24.6 million, and HODL with 9.5 million. Total AuM slipped back under 150 billion. Ether ETFs saw about 76 million in outflows, led by FETH with 33.1 million, Bitwise’s ETHW with 22.3 million, and ETHA with 15.1 million.

The macro backdrop is cautious. The dollar index holds firm near 97.40 and the ten year yield sits near 4.15 percent. Fed officials have mixed views on the pace of cuts. Futures markets now expect a slow path, which can pressure risk assets in the near term.

Price context matters. Bitcoin is chopping above 113,000 after a 111,591 low. Ether hovers near 4,200 support. If Powell signals patience, outflows can persist. If he opens the door to easier conditions, flows can flip quickly. In practice, watch whether spot demand absorbs weakness around intraday lows and whether ETF creations reappear on strength.

Key levels to monitor today. Bitcoin 113,500 reclaim for stabilization, 110,000 as the downside pivot. Ether 4,250 on the upside, 4,120 then 4,050 if selling resumes. Manage risk into the headline and let confirmation lead.

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