Dogecoin's price consolidates as whale inactivity and declining derivatives volume signal reduced market momentum.
The potential approval of a DOGE ETF boosts market optimism, with some predicting a 20-50% short-term rally.
Technical indicators show mixed signals, with $0.22 as near-term resistance and $0.20 as key support.
Dogecoin (DOGE) continues to consolidate around $0.2159, showing a modest daily increase of 0.6%, though it has fallen 2.4% over the past week. The digital currency traded within a narrow range of $0.2071 to $0.2164 in the past 24 hours, reflecting limited volatility and uncertainty within the market.
Trading volume in Dogecoin's derivatives market has dropped by 14.32%, reaching $5.07 billion over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Open interest, however, showed a slight increase of 0.57%, signaling that traders may be positioning for a potential breakout. Despite this, the overall decline in trading activity indicates a lack of strong speculative interest in the short term.
Whale Activity Remains Dormant
On-chain analysts such as Ali Martinez have indicated that Dogecoin whales have been particularly idle. The Dogecoin price has been stuck in a narrow price range without the impact of the large wallet flows, which normally create price momentum. This lack of movement has been another factor in the general stagnation in directional movement in the price of DOGE.
https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1963089820965646575
Some optimism has been generated by speculation regarding the possibility of a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Polymarket claims that the likelihood of an ETF approval has also increased to 71 (as compared to approximately 50 earlier in the year). Should the ETF pass, analysts anticipate massive institutional inflows that may generate a short-term rally of 20% to 50%. Conversely, the denial of the ETF filing may trigger a negative response, and some analysts say the decline will be between 10 and 15%.
Macro factors are also factors that impact the outlook of Dogecoin.
The macroeconomic general environment is another significant factor that determines the future of Dogecoin. As more people anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates several times before the year is over, they are becoming more willing to take risks with digital assets. In case the Fed does rate cuts, this would give some boost to Dogecoin and other altcoins.
Source: TradingView
Technically, Dogecoin is in a range. RSI (relative strength index) stands at 48, which is neutral, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting, which will likely result in a rise in volatility in the near future. The 20- and 30-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) have fallen below the price and indicate short-term bearish pressure. Should Dogecoin succeed in surging past the level of 0.22, it might open the door to a climb to 0.26-0.27. But when the price does not stick to the $0.21 support level, it may fall to $0.20.
