š BREAKING: U.S. inflation target: ls 3% the new 2%? and September Rate Cut, effect in 1st week of Q4 of 2025
Investing.com --Ā Markets appear to be treating recent upside surprises in U.S. inflation as temporary rather than the start of a structural shift, according to Wolfe Research.
āMarkets havenāt reacted to somewhat hotter than expected inflation reports recently with measures of CPI, Core CPI, PCE and Core PCE running close to, or above, 3% Y/Y,ā Wolfe Research said in a note.Ā
The firm added that investors seem to expect āthe recent and continued weakness in housing prices/rents will more than offset the tariff impact of higher goods prices with the latter being more one-time in nature than a permanent change in inflation expectations.ā
Wolfe Research said it āgenerally agree[s] with this view,ā suggesting the underlying inflation trend is unlikely to deviate much from its current trajectory unless a larger and more persistent shock occurs.
Taking a longer perspective, the firm noted that āCPI has averaged 2.9% since 1983, consistent with recent measures.āĀ
This history, Wolfe Research said, suggests that a 3% inflation rate may not be unusual relative to the long-term trend, even though the Federal Reserveās formal target remains 2%.
With inflation settling around 3% and no strong evidence of accelerating price pressures, Wolfe Research argued that other factors may soon take precedence in shaping monetary policy and market direction.Ā
āUnless there is a more persistent and larger upturn in inflation, the employment outlook will be much more important to markets (and the Fed) over the coming months than inflation,ā the note said.
That shift in focus could mean the Fedās reaction function becomes more tied to labor market conditions than marginal changes in inflation data.
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