Stellar (XLM) forms a bearish flag pattern with $0.378 as a possible target.
Derivatives data shows retail leaning short while top traders hold long exposure.
Short liquidations outpace longs, suggesting underlying upward pressure despite weak volume.
Stellar (XLM) price is in a bearish flag formation holding price uncertainty within after a fall. The numbers while being-retail-sentiment is bearish, reveals the derivatives data that the stronger players are holding on to as the long position, hopeful for a break-out.
Bearish Flag Formation on Daily Chart
Analyst Ali (@ali_charts) suggested on social media that XLM could reach $0.378 if the current flag resolves downward. The structure emerged after a steep fall from the $0.465 level, creating the flagpole that supports this bearish pattern.
XLM has been consolidating between support at $0.420 and resistance at $0.440. The contracting range signals indecision, where both buyers and sellers await confirmation of direction. This kind of setup often precedes sharp market moves.
If price closes below the lower boundary of the flag, technical projections point toward $0.378. The level aligns with a measured move extension of the prior decline, representing a critical support where buyers may re-emerge.
Derivatives Data Reflects Divided Sentiment
The derivatives market shows notable shifts as trading volume fell 38.77% to $582.97M. Open interest also declined 6.60% to $348.45M, suggesting a reduction in speculative positioning.
The 24-hour long/short ratio across exchanges stands at 0.9662, indicating a slight preference for shorts. However, on Binance, the long/short ratio for accounts is 1.2691, while top trader positions reach 1.5579, pointing toward bullish conviction.
On OKX, the ratio stands at 1.39, confirming that experts are net long, which match with the retail traders going short. Such a divergence speaks of a continuing conflict between short-term pessimism and cumulative strategy.
Liquidations Add Bullish Pressure
Liquidation data highlights a skew that favors potential upside. In the last 24 hours, total liquidations reached $430.26K, with shorts losing $332.80K compared to $97.45K for longs.
This heavier liquidation of shorts indicates upward moves forced traders to exit bearish bets. Such an imbalance often acts as fuel for extended upward corrections, even inside a bearish setup.
Short-term liquidation numbers over 1h, 4h, and 12h also lean against shorts. While the scale is smaller, it reflects consistent pressure against bearish traders in the near term.
