1) Macro: all eyes on U.S. inflation (CPI Tue, PPI Thu).
If CPI cools, rate-cut bets strengthen → risk-on mood (good for BTC/ETH). A hotter print could flip the script fast. Stocks are already tip-toeing higher into the data; dollar’s steady ahead of CPI and a U.S.–China tariff deadline. Translation: macro can swing crypto in a heartbeat this week.
2) Fed politics = sentiment risk.
After the July hold, some Fed voices now openly back multiple cuts this year, while D.C. chatter about the next Fed chair keeps bubbling. Any shift in rate-path expectations or chair headlines = volatility fuel.
3) Price action & flows: BTC near the highs, ETH pushing up.
Weekend strength carried into Monday with ETH rallying and BTC edging back toward records. Spot ETF flows have been net positive recently—confidence signal, but keep an eye on how CPI/PPI hits that trend.
4) Supply shocks: token unlocks.
Several L1/L2 unlocks (ARB/AVAX/APT, etc.) are slated this week—can mean short-term chop or rotation as supply hits the market. Don’t ignore it if you’re trading those ecosystems.
5) Binance ecosystem catalysts.
Fresh HODLer Airdrops (like TOWNS) just hit, with more listings/airdrops in the pipeline. These events can drive pockets of liquidity and narrative pops—worth tracking if you farm or rotate.
My game plan:
Keep core positions light until CPI lands.
Watch BTC $120k area and ETH momentum—follow through after data = clue.
If unlocks spike volatility, look for overshoots/mean reverts on quality names.
Stay nimble; macro sets the tone this week.