Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it clear that U.S. pressure won't make him back down. Despite former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of India’s continued purchases of Russian oil and the imposition of harsh tariffs, Modi is not changing course. Quite the opposite — he's looking forward to welcoming his “friend” Vladimir Putin to India later this year.

On Friday, Modi wrote on X that he had a “very good and detailed conversation” with Putin, during which they exchanged updates on the situation in Ukraine and reviewed progress in bilateral cooperation. He also reaffirmed the “special and privileged strategic partnership” between their countries. But the most striking message came at the end: “I look forward to welcoming President Putin to India later this year.” A statement guaranteed to irritate Washington.

Trump Escalates Tariffs and Puts Pressure on India

Just days earlier, Trump had raised the stakes. He doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, a level far higher than those imposed on other Asia-Pacific countries. According to Trump, the reason is clear: India is ignoring warnings and continuing to trade with Russia, especially when it comes to oil. Trump responded bluntly:

“I don’t care what India does with Russia. Let them destroy their damn economies together, what do I care. We never traded much with India — their tariffs are among the highest in the world.”

This tariff hike is a significant blow. Credit rating agency Moody’s has warned that these measures could reduce India’s GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points, potentially undermining its industrial ambitions — particularly in high-value sectors like electronics manufacturing.

Putin and Trump: Two Worlds, Two Strategies

While Modi strengthens ties with Moscow, Trump is tightening the screws on Russia and its trading partners. In an attempt to end the war in Ukraine, he is now threatening so-called secondary tariffs of up to 100% on any nation that continues business with Russia — unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal.

Although Trump's original ultimatum gave Putin 50 days, the deadline has since shortened. Reports suggest that the U.S. and Russian officials are working on a deal that would freeze the conflict and allow Russia to keep its currently occupied territories.

Trump has named ending the war one of his top foreign policy goals for a second term in office. However, progress is slow. Putin still demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions and that Moscow retain control of four annexed Ukrainian regions.

Earlier this week, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin for what Trump called a “highly productive” discussion. But by Thursday, his optimism had faded: “We’ll see what he says. It’s up to him. I’m very disappointed.”

Oil Still Fuels the Fire

Despite Western sanctions, Russian oil remains a vital source of cash for the Kremlin. While G7 countries have banned maritime imports, non-G7 nations like India can still buy Russian oil if they stay within the price cap. But if the West tightens restrictions further, it could devastate the Russian economy, which the World Bank predicts will grow only 1.4% this year — down from 4.3% in 2024.

India, meanwhile, is walking a fine line. If it’s forced to seek alternative oil suppliers, its import costs will rise sharply, potentially deepening the trade deficit and weakening investor confidence.

And signs of investor anxiety are already visible. In August alone, foreign portfolio investors pulled $900 million out of Indian equities — following a $2 billion outflow in July.

Summary: The World Watches India’s Next Move

India finds itself caught between two forces: a long-standing partnership with Russia and the lure of affordable energy, versus increasing pressure from Washington and punishing tariffs.

Trump is playing hardball. But so far, Modi isn’t blinking. And if Putin does land in India later this year, it will send a clear signal: New Delhi is charting its own course — no matter who sits in the Oval Office.

#TRUMP , #putin , #India , #Geopolitics , #worldnews

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