USDT dominance sits near 4.42 percent and may fall below 3.0 percent as wave three completes.
March 2024 and January 2025 are marked as key periods for support near the 2.85 percent level.
The RSI and stochastic patterns suggest selling pressure is still strong on all technical indicators.
Tether’s market dominance is showing signs of a sustained multi-leg decline, with key support zones projected below 3.0% into 2025. The chart from TradingView indicates that USDT.D may complete a five-wave pattern, possibly bottoming at around 2.85% dominance. With altcoins gaining strength, a key question emerges: is Tether dominance signaling a full-scale altcoin season ahead?
https://twitter.com/Michael_EWpro/status/1953258031824650254 Complex Elliott Structure Forecasts Extended Correction Below Key Support
The 1D USDT.D chart reveals an extended corrective wave pattern that suggests the recent bounce was part of a second wave. The annotation “more likely was w2” suggests the corrective rally ended below the 4.47% mark before the larger downward impulse resumed. According to the wave count, the structure is entering wave (3) within a five-wave decline.
Projected Fibonacci extensions for wave (3) show possible retracement levels at 3.87% for the 2.618 level, 3.36% at 3.618, and 3.07% at the 4.236 extension. These technical levels align with the visual trend momentum currently shifting downward after topping near the 5.62% range in mid-July.
Volume distribution has been largely consistent through the previous impulses, but there is no current divergence from the downward momentum. The chart also includes a visual indicator pointing toward a possible touchpoint near 2.85%, marked for March 2024, December 2025, or January 2025.
Oscillator Metrics Confirm Weak Momentum as Reversal Signals Fade
Technical indicators at the bottom of the chart reveal weakening momentum in favor of continued downside pressure. The stochastic RSI shows a sharp decline from overbought territory, signaling that bullish strength has faded quickly in the latest move.
The RSI itself also reversed course and dropped below the 50 level, suggesting that sellers are in control. These conditions indicate that short-term rallies may be limited, and any upside could be part of a corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The Ichimoku Cloud also confirms a bearish crossover, with the price trading below the cloud and Tenkan-Sen lines. This suggests that the long-term trend remains to the downside, with no immediate signs of bullish strength to alter the broader trajectory.
These indicators, in combination with wave analysis, suggest USDT.D is unlikely to revisit the recent highs above 4.5%. Traders looking for altcoin entries may see this as confirmation of a risk-on environment developing across the broader market.
Key Cycle Dates Marked for Potential Bottoming in 2024 and 2025
Important time-based targets on the chart highlight the possibility of cyclical bottoms for USDT dominance in three distinct months. The chart specifically marks March 2024, December 2025, and January 2025 as potential bottoming points for the broader wave structure.
If dominance continues to fall toward the 2.85% area, this would align with historical altcoin run-ups observed in prior market cycles. Lower USDT.D often corresponds with capital rotation into altcoins, especially when Bitcoin consolidates or trades sideways.
This long-term wave projection offers macro guidance for portfolio rotations. Investors and analysts may interpret continued weakness in USDT dominance as an early signal of broad altcoin rallies extending into 2026.