Earlier today, the odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) plunged to 66%, the lowest level since January.
However, according to Eric Balchunas, senior exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst for Bloomberg, this is an overreaction.
Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she's gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it's meaningless, she's outnumbered = we haven't changed our odds, still at 95%. https://t.co/TamMn8DHVh pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 7, 2025
Bloomberg experts have so far refrained from changing their approval odds for an XRP ETF, maintaining them at 95%.
"Outnumbered"
The plunge in the Polymarket occurred after it transpired that Democratic Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw voted against each of the 13 initiatives related to crypto ETFs on July 29. Crenshaw was the only "no" vote in each case, with Chairman Paul Atkins and Republican Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda always voting in favor.
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Balchunas remains optimistic about XRP approval odds since Crenshaw, a strong crypto critic, is expected to vote against crypto ETFs, given that she also opposed the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, the leading Bloomberg expert argues that her opposition is essentially meaningless since Crenshaw is a lone anti-crypto commissioner who will always get outnumbered.
Crenshaw’s criticism of Ripple settlement
Asreported by U.Today, Crenshaw previously criticized the SEC's decision to reach a settlement with Ripple.
The SEC commissioner argued that the SEC was actually "worried" that it could win its appeal against Ripple.
The settlement was then rejected by the judge, and Ripple then moved to drop its cross-appeal against the SEC. It is worth noting that the SEC has yet to reciprocate.
