September rate cut probability is now at 80%.

Just yesterday, this was below 45% and one data changed everything.

Unemployment rate came at 4.2% and job data was revised much lower.

This shows that Fed is really late to rate cuts, and now market is panicking.

Now, there's one more data to look at this month which is CPI.

If CPI slows down, expect a good rally and a confirmed rate cut in September.