According to PANews, optimism in global markets has surged this week following reports of breakthroughs in trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States. This has led to a significant rise in the U.S. dollar, while the euro and yen have experienced notable declines due to improved U.S. trade positions and capital flows into dollar assets. The non-farm payroll report presented mixed data, causing volatility across various asset classes. In response to risk aversion, bonds and gold have seen an uptick, with gold rising by $40 post-report, erasing previous losses and closing the week at $3,363 per ounce, marking a 0.79% increase.
Key events for the upcoming week include the final reading of the U.S. July S&P Global Services PMI on Tuesday at 21:45 UTC+8, and several speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. On Thursday at 03:10 UTC+8, San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak, followed by initial jobless claims data at 20:30 UTC+8. Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat at 22:00 UTC+8, and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations will be released at 23:00 UTC+8. On Friday at 22:20 UTC+8, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver remarks.
The implementation of new tariffs has been postponed to August 7, providing countries with additional time to negotiate tariff reductions. Despite two board members voting for a 25 basis point rate cut, the overall tone of the statement and comments from Fed Chair Powell remain neutral. This suggests that while the Federal Reserve is open to a rate cut in September, it has not ruled out the possibility of a rate hike if tariff increases and a tightening labor market lead to higher inflation.