Bitcoin long-term supply now sits near 75 percent as the price remains strong and steady above $65K.
The chart shows this behaviour only followed past rallies that brought sharp upward price movement in cycles.
From 2023 to 2025, long-term holders kept increasing and now control most of the Bitcoin in circulation.
Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has reached nearly 75% of the total circulating supply, according to new 2025 data from ARK Invest. The supply metric now sits at its highest since 2016, signalling strong conviction among long-term investors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price remains near its peak, hovering above $65,000.
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1946960188633698349
The chart, provided by ARK Investment Management LLC and sourced from Glassnode, tracks data from 2010 through June 30, 2025. It compares Bitcoin’s price action against the percentage of coins held by long-term holders (LTH). The trend reveals an inverse correlation during bull cycles and a growing alignment in recent years.
Long-term holders, defined by holding durations exceeding five months, have steadily increased their supply share since the 2022 consolidation phase. This rise mirrors earlier accumulation cycles seen before major price rallies in 2013, 2017, and 2020.
LTH Supply Climbs as Price Consolidates
In 2017, Bitcoin's long-term holder supply fell below 55% during its steep climb to $20,000. Similarly, in 2021, the percentage dropped under 60% as price action surged above $60,000. These dips occurred as holders began distributing to newer market participants.
However, as of mid-2025, the LTH share has remained stable above 70% and is now trending near 75%. This shift signals reduced selling pressure and stronger belief in long-term value among current holders. The trend also mirrors similar accumulation phases during previous macro bottoms.
The chart’s black line tracking Bitcoin’s price now follows a steadier course than in past cycles. Unlike earlier parabolic spikes, the current trend shows reduced volatility and fewer liquidations. dips. This may reflect the evolving maturity of Bitcoin markets and increasing institutional presence.
Historical Patterns and Predictive Signals
From 2010 to 2014, long-term holder supply remained highly volatile, swinging between 35% and 85%. That period reflected early market experimentation and the rise of speculative activity. By 2016, LTH supply settled near 70%, just before Bitcoin’s push above $1,000.
In subsequent years, especially during the 2018–2019 bear market, the LTH metric rose steadily. That climb preceded the 2020 breakout, where Bitcoin rose past $10,000 and eventually topped $60,000. This consistent pattern now appears to be repeating as supply consolidation leads price action.
During the COVID crash in 2020, LTH supply sharply dipped but rebounded by early 2021. This rebound preceded one of the fastest rallies in Bitcoin’s history. The present chart displays a similar structure, with post-2022 accumulation holding strong above the 70% mark.
Institutional Confidence Reflected in LTH Metrics
The consistent rise in long-term holder share through 2023–2025 suggests stronger institutional participation. Many large entities hold Bitcoin off exchanges, contributing to reduced supply liquidity. This trend also reduces the likelihood of extreme short-term volatility.
Entity-adjusted data compiled by Glassnode supports this conclusion by filtering out exchange-held and short-term wallets. It reveals a growing base of dormant coins, suggesting minimal movement despite price spikes. This often reflects cold storage by funds and custodians.
ARK’s report categorises this behaviour as structural maturity, backed by algorithmic filtering that separates short-term speculative inflows. The combination of high price and high LTH supply has only appeared in a few market phases before.
These metrics now present a rare alignment, with Bitcoin above $65,000 and LTH ownership nearing 75%. Analysts will be watching closely for the next move as holders continue to accumulate while the price remains elevated.
