Why a Bull Market Can Be Brutal — Even for Smart Money

It’s often said that a bull market makes it easier to lose money, and a quick look at on-chain data backs that up — even for the so-called “smart money.”

Take wallet 0x8af700ba841f30e0a3fcb0ee4c4a9d223e1efa05 for example. This trader once turned $2.82 million into $14.81 million in profit by shorting a basket of altcoins — a strategy that worked perfectly during the flat or declining markets prior to May.

But the recent rally flipped the script. Now, that same wallet is sitting on a floating loss of $12.48 million, with only 38% of its 26 short positions currently in the green. The strategy seemed sound: short low-cap coins in smaller amounts, and high-cap coins in larger ones. But in a strong bullish breakout, even well-planned shorts can get wiped out fast.

To make matters worse, this wallet’s biggest drag is XRP, which alone accounts for a $9 million loss. While they did hedge a bit by going long on BTC and AAVE, it wasn’t nearly enough to offset the pain across the rest of the portfolio.

This case is a clear reminder: in a bull market, staying bearish too long can be more dangerous than being wrong — it can erase months of gains in days.