Key Takeaways:
Fed Board Member Waller signals July rate cut despite lack of Fed commentary during pre-meeting blackout.
Trump proposes new EU tariffs of 15–20%, escalating transatlantic trade friction ahead of August policy moves.
Bitcoin and Ethereum end "Crypto Week" strong, fueled by the signing of the Stablecoin Bill.
Upcoming U.S. data releases and Fed appearances may shape next moves in interest rates and market sentiment.
Fed Enters Silence Period, But Waller Signals Dovish Tilt
As the Federal Reserve enters its mandated communications blackout ahead of its July policy meeting, all eyes turn to subtle economic signals and pre-silence remarks. Christopher Waller, a current Fed board member and frontrunner to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, reiterated support for a 25 basis point rate cut in July. His dovish stance is backed by recent improvements in consumer inflation expectations, which could reinforce market hopes for looser monetary conditions.
Markets are expected to parse Fed-related appearances carefully this week — even those with limited policy disclosures — including Chair Powell's welcome remarks at a regulatory conference on Tuesday and Governor Bowman’s fireside chat on Wednesday.
Trade Pressures Rise as Trump Eyes New Tariffs on the EU
On the trade front, tensions between the U.S. and European Union are resurfacing. President Donald Trump has called for a 15%–20% minimum tariff on all EU goods, signaling a significant policy shift that could reignite inflationary risks and global trade instability. According to PANews, Trump is expected to announce targeted tariffs on select EU industries by August 1, keeping markets on edge.
While the full scope and timing of the tariffs remain uncertain, analysts at ABN Amro note that moderating inflation trends are not enough to offset trade-related volatility, especially if tariff threats materialize into action.
Crypto Week Ends With Historic Highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Despite macroeconomic turbulence, crypto markets rallied as Trump signed the long-awaited Stablecoin Bill into law, adding clarity and momentum to the digital asset space.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high above $123,000.
Ethereum (ETH) briefly topped $3,600, marking its fourth consecutive week of outperformance against BTC.
The passage of key legislation and rising institutional adoption are increasingly viewed as long-term tailwinds for the sector, potentially decoupling crypto from broader risk assets.
Upcoming U.S. Economic Events to Watch
Traders will closely monitor key data and scheduled appearances this week, even in the Fed's silence period:
Date & Time (UTC+8) | Event |
|---|---|
Mon, Jul 21 – 22:00 | U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index (MoM) |
Tue, Jul 22 – 20:30 | Fed Chair Powell: Welcome address at regulatory conference |
Wed, Jul 23 – 01:00 | Fed Governor Bowman: Fireside chat |
Wed, Jul 23 – TBD | Trump speech: "Winning the AI Race" |
Thu, Jul 24 – 20:30 | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Jul 19) |
With the Fed quiet, market focus shifts to tariff announcements, employment data, and global inflation pressures. The balance between dovish Fed expectations and hawkish trade signals will likely define near-term market direction. Crypto may continue to benefit from regulatory clarity, but broader risk sentiment hinges on whether Trump’s trade rhetoric escalates into action.
