Anndy Lian
Trump’s Fed firing threat shakes markets: A deep dive into the economic fallout
The most striking development in this saga is the report that President Trump drafted a letter to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and shared it with House Republicans during a private meeting.
This move, if true, signals a potential escalation in Trump’s long-standing frustration with Powell, whom he has criticised for not aligning Fed policies, particularly interest rate decisions, with his economic agenda. Sources indicate that Trump sought input from the lawmakers, many of whom reportedly supported the idea of ousting Powell.
However, Trump later walked back these reports, stating he’s “not planning on doing anything” and deeming it “highly unlikely” he would fire Powell unless there were extreme circumstances like fraud. He even denied drafting the letter, despite earlier accounts suggesting otherwise.
This episode is more than just political theatre. It raises serious questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, a cornerstone of US economic stability. The Fed’s autonomy allows it to make monetary policy decisions based on data and long-term economic health, free from short-term political pressures.
If Trump were to follow through on such a threat, it could erode confidence in the Fed’s ability to act impartially, potentially destabilising financial markets and undermining the US dollar’s global standing.
Even the mere suggestion of such an action has already sparked volatility, as markets grapple with the uncertainty of a politically influenced central bank. Trump’s history of clashing with Powell, particularly over his desire for lower interest rates to stimulate growth, adds context to this tension; however, the draft letter, if it exists, marks a bold step toward direct intervention.
On the economic front, several key indicators provide additional layers to this story. US producer prices (PPI) in June 2025 remained flat, missing expectations of a 0.2 per cent increase after a revised 0.3 per cent rise in May. This stagnation was driven by a 0.1 per cent dip in service prices, highlighted by a sharp 4.1 per cent drop in traveler accommodation costs, offset by a 0.3 per cent rise in goods prices, the largest since February, fuelled by an 0.8 per cent jump in communication equipment.
Flat producer prices suggest that inflationary pressures may be cooling at the wholesale level, which could ease some of the Fed’s concerns about overheating. However, this comes on the heels of a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading earlier in the week, creating a mixed inflation picture that complicates the Fed’s next moves.
Across the Atlantic, UK inflation rose to 3.6 per cent in June 2025, the highest level since January 2024, up from 3.4 per cent in May and exceeding forecasts. This spike was primarily driven by a 1.7 per cent increase in transport costs, with motor fuel, airfares, rail fares, and vehicle maintenance all contributing. Rising UK inflation could pressure the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy, potentially strengthening the pound and influencing global capital flows.
Meanwhile, US industrial production rose 0.3 per cent in June, surpassing expectations of a 0.1 per cent gain after two flat months. Manufacturing edged up 0.1 per cent, while utilities surged 2.8 per cent, boosted by a 3.5 per cent rise in electricity generation. This resilience in industrial activity signals underlying economic strength, though trade tensions and tariffs could pose risks to sustained growth.
Equities: A relief rally in the US, struggles elsewhere
The equity markets have responded swiftly to the Trump-Powell saga. In the US, stocks closed higher on Wednesday after Trump quelled fears of removing Powell, offering a soothing balm to investors rattled by earlier reports. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 231 points, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1 per cent to a record close.
This uptick reflects a relief rally, as markets had dipped earlier on concerns that Powell’s ouster could disrupt monetary policy stability and exacerbate inflation and trade worries. The flat PPI data also helped calm nerves after Tuesday’s hotter CPI reading, suggesting that inflationary pressures might not be as intense as feared.
On the corporate side, results were mixed: Goldman Sachs rose one per cent after beating profit estimates, while Johnson & Johnson soared 6.2 per cent on strong earnings and an upgraded outlook. In contrast, Bank of America fell 0.3 per cent on weak revenue, and Morgan Stanley dropped 1.3 per cent despite solid earnings.
In Europe, however, the mood was less upbeat. Frankfurt’s DAX slipped 0.2 per cent to 24,048, marking its fifth consecutive loss amid trade uncertainty and disappointing earnings. Hopes for a softer tariff deal faded as Trump renewed threats to expand tariffs to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by August 1 under his “reciprocal” tax plan.
The EU Trade Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, is set to visit Washington to negotiate the US’s proposed 30 per cent tariff, underscoring the high stakes for European exporters. Automakers bore the brunt of the decline, with Volkswagen down 3.7 per cent, Porsche AG off three per cent, and Mercedes-Benz losing 1.9 per cent. Chemical distributor Brenntag also fell 2.6 per cent after a Deutsche Bank downgrade. These losses highlight how Trump’s trade policies are casting a long shadow over European markets.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 per cent to 24,518, snapping a four-day winning streak after hitting a four-month high earlier in the session. Traders took profits as US futures weakened following June inflation data, which hinted that tariffs might be pushing prices higher and reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Trump’s signals of potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals by the end of July, with semiconductors possibly next, added further pressure. Notable losers included Pop Mart International (-4.3 per cent), Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech (-3.0 per cent), KE Holdings (-2.7 per cent), and China Longyuan Power (-2.5 per cent). The pullback reflects broader concerns about how US trade policy could disrupt Asian markets, particularly those tied to global supply chains.
FX: Dollar volatility and global currency shifts
The foreign exchange market has been a rollercoaster amid these developments. The US dollar (USD) initially dipped on reports that Trump might fire Powell, as investors worried about the implications for Fed independence and continuity of monetary policy. The dollar index (DXY) fell below 98.40, reflecting this unease.
However, the USD rebounded after Trump denied the claims, and the soft PPI data bolstered confidence that inflation might remain in check. This recovery underscores the dollar’s sensitivity to both political headlines and economic fundamentals.
The euro (EUR) capitalised on the dollar’s early weakness, briefly rising above US$1.17, but later pared its gains as Powell-related uncertainty lingered, settling around US$1.1630. The British pound (GBP) strengthened to above 1.34, buoyed by the softer dollar and a temporary lift from UK inflation data, which hinted at potential Bank of England action.
In Japan, the yen weakened against the dollar, with USDJPY climbing to 148.20, as exports fell 0.5 per cent year-over-year in June, missing expectations of a 0.5 per cent gain. This decline was driven by an 11.4 per cent drop in exports to the US and a 4.7 per cent fall to China, though exports to the EU rose 3.6 per cent. Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.2 per cent year-over-year, defying forecasts of a 1.1 per cent drop. These trade figures highlight the challenges facing export-driven economies amid global trade tensions.
Commodities mixed, yield curve steepens
In the commodities space, gold rose, snapping a two-day slide, as investors sought safety amid the uncertainty surrounding Powell. The metal surged as much as 1.6 per cent before trimming gains after Trump’s denial, reflecting its role as a haven asset. Oil edged higher after a three-day slide, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near US$67 and Brent below US$69, driven by mixed US inventory data. Crude stockpiles fell, but distillate inventories rose, amid ongoing trade war concerns.
In the bond market, the spread between 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields widened to 108 basis points, the steepest since 2021. This steepening yield curve could signal expectations of stronger growth and higher inflation ahead, though it may also reflect uncertainty about the Fed’s future path under political scrutiny.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum in focus
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is consolidating below US$120,000 after hitting an all-time high of US$123,091 earlier in the week, closing flat at US$118,600. A bearish engulfing candle and declining volume, from US$180 billion on July 14 to below US$100 billion by July 15, suggest market indecision. Support sits at US$117,000, with a potential drop to US$114,400-US$112,000 if breached. Despite this, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surged to US$799 million on Wednesday, signalling robust long-term demand.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) soared 15 per cent in three days after Peter Thiel disclosed a 9.1 per cent stake in BitMine, a crypto miner holding 164,000 Ether worth US$500 million. This news has electrified the crypto space, underscoring growing institutional interest.
My take: Implications and outlook
Recent developments indicate that we are at a pivotal moment in the global economy. Trump’s suggestion of firing Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, a move that could lead to long-term market instability if it were to occur.
The current mixed economic signals from flat US Producer Price Index (PPI) and rising inflation in the UK, to solid industrial production, suggest that the global economy is in a state of flux, with unpredictable trade policies adding to the uncertainty.
In the US, equities show resilience, while other markets exhibit vulnerabilities. The fluctuations in the dollar underscore its crucial role in global finance. Commodities and cryptocurrencies present both opportunities and risks, with gold and Ethereum standing out amid this uncertainty.
Looking ahead, the relationship between politics and economic policy will be vital. If Trump decides to back off, the markets may stabilise; however, any renewed pressure could lead to increased volatility.
Key economic data releases, such as US retail sales and the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), will further influence the situation. For now, the world is watching closely, and I will continue to analyse the data to provide a clear perspective on what lies ahead.
Source: https://e27.co/trumps-fed-firing-threat-shakes-markets-a-deep-dive-into-the-economic-fallout-20250718/
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