Ethereum returned to its growth curve at $1,552 after falling more than $250 in the weekly session.
This support band has aligned with past bottoms in 2018 and 2020, and now ETH trades inside it again.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen shared this return, which could signal a critical testing point for Ethereum’s path.
Ethereum has dropped to $1,552 on the weekly Kraken chart, marking a 14.04% decline and a return to its historical support curve. According to data shared by analyst Benjamin Cowen, the digital asset has re-entered its long-term logarithmic regression channel. This curve has previously acted as a reliable bottom indicator during major market resets.
Source: X
The chart shows Ethereum touching the lower boundary of the green curved band, which has supported the asset since 2016. The current weekly candle reflects a high of $1,955 and a low of $1,537. The sharp move down brings ETH back into the accumulation range that coincided with key cycles in 2018 and 2020.
This pattern has historically preceded major trend reversals. Previous visits to this zone have aligned with long-term buying opportunities and market expansions. However, the recent drop also reflects broad market weakness, signaling uncertainty ahead.
Historical Context Aligns with Current Price Level
Ethereum first entered the lower bound of this regression channel in 2016, trading below $10. Since then, the curve has adapted to growth cycles, capturing Ethereum's lows during multiple macro dips. In 2018, the asset bottomed around $85 within the same band before initiating a multi-year rally.
The curve again supported ETH during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, when the asset traded below $100. A strong breakout followed, driving Ethereum to an all-time high above $4,800 by November 2021. Each bounce from the green curve has historically confirmed a long-term bullish structure.
The current return to this zone echoes past patterns. Ethereum is now 68% below its all-time high. If the historical structure holds, this level could act as a foundational price base moving forward.
Is Ethereum’s Regression Curve Still a Reliable Floor?
Benjamin Cowen, a widely followed market analyst, shared the chart with the caption “Welcome Home, Ethereum,” indicating a technical re-alignment. The phrase refers to ETH's consistent return to this channel across cycles. This time, however, market conditions differ significantly from previous cycle lows.
Macro pressures, including reduced liquidity, lower DeFi activity, and regulatory uncertainty, add external variables. Unlike in past cycles, Ethereum now trades in a mature market with institutional participants and broader macro correlations.
Still, the curve’s historical accuracy draws attention. The band visually reflects a long-term pricing corridor defined by years of price action. With Ethereum now back at $1,552, traders are evaluating whether this structural support will once again hold strong.
The candle for this week reflects sharp downward movement. However, previous recoveries from similar zones have often taken several weeks or months to materialize. Patience may be required to confirm whether the re-entry into this range signals a bottom or further downside.
Technical Outlook Points to Crucial Testing Phase
This regression channel continues to define Ethereum’s long-term trajectory. Current positioning offers a potential turning point if historical trends persist. However, the price must stabilize within this range to avoid deeper corrections.
Ethereum’s price is now situated near the mid-range of the lower band. That level sits between $1,500 and $1,600, which may act as key support in the coming sessions. Failure to hold this line could open the door to a retest of the $1,200 level, which aligns with the lower bound.
Weekly data from Kraken shows strong sell pressure, with ETH down over $250 for the week. The asset’s next move will determine if this curve retains its legacy as Ethereum’s long-term anchor.
