2021 Cycle Top Signature

Current Supply in Loss: 5.48%

Buffer to danger zone: 2.48% above the critical 3% threshold

Risk trajectory: Lower numbers = higher risk

Next few months critical

At 5.48% Supply in Loss, we have runway but need to watch the decline toward 3%. History shows this metric provided perfect timing for the 2021 exit. The next few months are critical not for immediate panic, but for disciplined dca out strategy.

Risk Level: Moderate (prepare, don't panic)

Key Metric: Watch 5.48% → 3% decline

Action Plan: Progressive exits as threshold approaches

Written by Onchain Edge