Our first ALARM just went off, and we got our GRADUAL and PARTIAL SELL signal.
The STH-SOPR metric has moved above the 1.05 level. This means that SHORT-TERM HOLDERS (holding BTC for less than 155 days) are taking profits. And according to MY GAME PLAN, this is where I start GRADUAL SELLING.
For those who don’t remember, here’s how my game plan was:
Back in February and March, when the STH Realized Price metric (Image #1) started flashing RED, and at the same time the STH-SOPR metric (Image #2) began diving into the GREEN ZONE, we GRADUALLY accumulated BTC.
Because these metrics were signaling that SHORT-TERM HOLDERS were in CAPITULATION. And for us, buying their panic and bankruptcy was a very logical move.
We also agreed that; A few months later, when STH-SOPR starts spiking into the RED ZONE, we will start GRADUALLY selling the BTC we had GRADUALLY accumulated between 70k–85k.
Now, the first signal from that game plan has arrived.
Still there is not a heavy distribution in the market, but STH-SOPR is starting to spike into the RED ZONE.
So I’m realizing 15% of the BTC I bought between 70k–85k, around the 120k level, and converting it into cash.
But the key point here is:
DO NOT SELL EVERYTHING.
This is a GRADUAL SELL.
Let’s make this clear:
The "SELL" signal from this metric does NOT mean "THIS IS THE TOP, THERE’S NO HIGHER."
If you look at the movement during the previous wave in the chart, you’ll see that the price kept rising even after the first SELL signal.
But when you check the chart again 3–5 months later, you’ll realize you had made GRADUAL SALES from very reasonable and satisfying levels.
If the price continues to go up in the coming period, and the metric starts making new spikes into the RED ZONE, I’ll sell one more portion.
But if the price drops instead, and then the metric starts diving into the GREEN ZONE, I’ll use the cash I got today to buy more BTC.
Gradual accumulation, gradual distribution, Just like a whale surfing the waves.
Written by CryptoMe
