DXY’s structural breakdown in July 2025 mirrors past macro tops that preceded major Bitcoin rallies.
Bitcoin responded quickly to DXY's weakness, while SPX6900 showed delayed recovery after sharp intraday losses.
RSI behavior aligned with prior bullish Bitcoin setups, dipping near 30 before BTC regained upward momentum.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recorded another structural breakdown in July 2025, echoing previous cycle tops. Historical chart data from 2015 to 2025 shows that each time the DXY forms a macro top and loses key support, BTC’s price rebounds sharply. The latest chart reveals the same pattern unfolding again. A lower high on DXY has been followed by a breakdown marked with a pink dot, triggering a sharp RSI dip and a new Bitcoin rally. This structure appears identical to the 2017 and 2020 breakdowns, which preceded major BTC uptrends.
Chart History Points to Repeated Inverse Correlation
Each macro top in the DXY has been followed by a structural failure. This is confirmed by lower highs, break-of-structure points, and downward rotations. The chart marks these peaks with blue and green circles inside orange-shaded zones. September 2017 and August 2020 saw DXY break down after forming lower highs.
Source: Javier Santini (X)
During both events, Bitcoin reversed from downtrends into strong upward moves. Each of these rallies began soon after RSI dropped toward the lower end of its range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tracked within a horizontal band between 30 and 70 throughout the chart. Before each BTC rally, RSI consistently dipped toward 30.
When DXY lost momentum and broke lower, RSI bounced upward while Bitcoin gained strength. The current setup as of July 2025 shows RSI at similar levels. This setup reflects historical patterns that aligned with Bitcoin rallies.
Bitcoin Leads While Equities Lag in Prior Setups
In both previous cycles, Bitcoin showed faster response to DXY breakdowns. The S&P 500 followed with a delayed uptrend. This lag in equities was visible in 2017 and 2020, where BTC rallied first while traditional markets remained flat. The current BTC price sits near $109,204 and shows an upward slope.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Past data shows the same setup preceding continued rallies in the digital asset. Tracking the current price trend of Bitcoin and SPX, a comparative chart indicates that SPX6900 is trading at $1.32 after dropping 1.11% in the past 24 hours.
The market cap fell to $1.22 billion, down 1.12%, with daily trading volume at $51.12 million, a 13.7% decrease. The price chart shows SPX declining sharply, reaching a low near -8.5%. A minor recovery followed, pushing losses to around -2% by midday. In contrast, Bitcoin remained flat throughout the session, showing no notable deviation from its zero baseline.
