Bitcoin long-term holders now see 220 percent unrealized profit down from March 2024’s 300 percent level.
Data shows realized price for holders has now reached $39K while $140K BTC is needed for parity.
Chart signals show profit pressure mounting as average margins drop closer to October 2024 conditions.
Unrealized profits for long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) are falling and now match levels seen during the October 2024 correction. As of July 1, 2025, the average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, stands at approximately 220%. While this figure appears strong, it remains below past cycle highs, raising concerns among market watchers.
https://twitter.com/Darkfost_Coc/status/1939936014732022231 Profit Levels Remain Below Previous Market Tops
According to recent on-chain data, long-term holders are experiencing decreasing profitability compared to earlier in the cycle. In March 2024 and again in December 2024, average unrealized profits among long-term Bitcoin holders reached 300% and 350%, respectively. The current 220% metric represents a notable decline from those peak levels.
Market data indicates the average realized price for long-term holders now sits at $39,000. This figure suggests many investors acquired Bitcoin at or below that threshold, providing a benchmark for profitability measurements. With Bitcoin recently priced around $107,800, the average unrealized profit remains substantial, but historical comparisons show this is not the cycle’s high.
The profit/loss margin continues to narrow, and the cost basis for long-term holders is trending higher. As the gap between realized cost and market price closes, the likelihood of widespread distribution increases. This dynamic could introduce further volatility if key profit levels trigger sell-offs.
Chart Signals Historical Comparisons and Profit Pressure
A CryptoQuant chart outlines the realized profit and loss among long-term Bitcoin holders, mapping price movements and cost basis trends since early 2023. From mid-2023 to mid-2025, the chart shows spikes in high-profit zones aligning with BTC’s peak cycles. Green bars representing realized profits shrink as prices consolidate near $100,000, suggesting reduced selling incentives.
The chart also reveals sharp declines in high-loss segments, indicating fewer long-term holders are underwater. This pattern implies a maturing market with more experienced capital, but also one that may react quickly to shifts in realized margins. The consistent rise in long-term holder cost basis underscores broader adoption and accumulation during bullish phases.
At the time of reporting, realized profit margins continue to contract. Market observers point out that to revisit previous unrealized profit levels near 300%, Bitcoin would need to hit $140,000. That price point has become a significant psychological level, not just for traders, but also for on-chain participants tracking profitability signals.
Could $140K Be the Next Market Trigger?
This leads to a pivotal question: Can Bitcoin reach $140,000 to restore long-term holder profit levels to previous highs?
According to analysts tracking the MVRV ratio, Bitcoin remains in a mid-cycle stage rather than a euphoric top. Historical patterns suggest unrealized profits typically expand before major peaks, not contract. With current profitability trailing previous benchmarks, the market may be due for another leg up before a macro top forms.
Investor sentiment appears split. While some interpret the falling unrealized profits as a cooling phase, others view it as a setup for renewed demand. The data-backed case for further upside hinges on returning to higher profit ratios that historically triggered market tops. Until then, long-term holders may continue holding, awaiting the $140K threshold to reenter high-profit territory.
As unrealized profits compress, and the realized price climbs to $39,000, eyes remain fixed on whether $140,000 is in reach.
