XRP's historical cycles show post-EMA retests triggered gains of 455% to 2,000% in previous market phases.
The current cycle suggests potential price targets of $9.5 (455%) and $37.5 (2,000%) from the April 2025 EMA retest.
Technical support at $2.18 and resistance at $2.21–$2.33 form critical levels ahead of a possible blowoff phase.
As XRP trades near $2.19, historical cycle data presents two possible targets for its next major move: $9.5 and $37.5. A recent chart analysis shows that XRP’s price behavior aligns with previous multi-year cycles, where a breakout above the exponential moving average (EMA), followed by a retest, precedes a significant surge.
Observers now focus on how this third cycle could unfold, with past performance serving as a key reference point. Analysts are closely watching the price movement since April 2025, a period marked by an early rally and subsequent EMA retest, resembling phases seen in prior cycles.
XRP Cycle Targets Range Between $9.5 and $37.5
Cycle 1, recorded in late 2017, saw XRP rally 2,000% after retesting the EMA. This surge took the price from the support zone near the EMA to a cycle high at $3.35. Cycle 2, which played out during the 2021–2022 timeframe, produced a more moderate 455% increase post-retest, peaking at approximately $1.63. Both cycles displayed a similar formation: a move above the EMA, a brief retest, and a rapid upward phase. Notably, the EMA provided structural support during the rise in each cycle.
Source: (X)
Drawing from these events, analysts calculate two targets if the current cycle follows similar behavior. A conservative outcome, echoing Cycle 2’s 455% gain, projects XRP’s price toward $9.5. Alternatively, a repeat of Cycle 1’s magnitude could push the price as high as $37.5. These estimates apply to percentage gains from the retest point in April 2025, assuming the EMA continues to hold as dynamic support.
Current Chart Setup and Technical Reference Levels
As of June 29, 2025, XRP trades just above the monthly EMA near $2.18, with the most recent high at $2.33. Support is holding around $2.18, while the resistance range lies between $2.21 and $2.33. The technical chart outlines the EMA retest occurring in April 2025, mirroring the past cycle points from where major blowoff moves began.
Three dotted green lines on the chart indicate potential targets: $7.94 (455%), $9.7 (adjusted projection), and $35.63 (2,000%). These levels reflect both historical accuracy and technical extrapolation from past price movements. The next candle formations, especially those in Q3 2025, will serve as pivotal markers in confirming whether a similar explosive move is underway.
Blowoff Phase Expected by September 2025 if EMA Structure Holds
The chart indicates that the anticipated blowoff phase could begin before September 1, 2025. By that time, if the price maintains position above the EMA, it would validate the structural setup observed in the last two cycles. The EMA trajectory is expected to continue sloping upward, providing a foundation for a strong move.
Technical positioning remains critical in identifying if XRP will follow a conservative trajectory toward $9.5 or reach a higher target near $37.5. The price behavior around the EMA during this period will be crucial in confirming either path. XRP’s cycle structure, backed by historical data, offers a narrowly defined framework for evaluating its next move.
