Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score sits under 4, far below past euphoric tops, signaling the cycle is intact and upside potential remains.
Realized cap growth past $500B without sell-offs shows investors are holding Bitcoin longer, strengthening its bullish foundation.
Bitcoin’s flat active address trend near 1M suggests the rally isn’t driven by hype, but by sustained network engagement.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is signaling a strong bullish continuation as it remains well below historical euphoria levels. While the cryptocurrency holds above $60,000, analysts agree the market has not yet reached speculative extremes.
MVRV Z-Score Reflects Controlled Investor Behavior
The MVRV Z-Score, which measures the gap between Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap, is hovering between 2 and 3.5. According to Stockmoney Lizards, this neutral-to-bullish range shows Bitcoin is not in an overheated zone.
https://twitter.com/StockmoneyL/status/1937516916614066388
Previous market tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 saw the Z-Score surge past 7 and even 9, marking euphoric price behavior before severe corrections. Bitcoin has not seen such overextension in the 2023 to 2025 cycle, reinforcing the absence of irrational profit-taking.
Realized Cap Growth Shows Long-Term Conviction
Bitcoin’s realized cap, now above $500 billion, continues to grow with no major retracements. This steady climb reflects growing investor conviction and deeper capital commitment.
While the market cap is approaching $1.3 trillion, realized cap metrics suggest investors are holding rather than flipping for quick gains. This lack of panic selling, even amid higher prices, adds to the bullish structure forming in Bitcoin’s macro outlook.
Network Activity Confirms Absence of Retail Euphoria
In a separate analysis, Crypto Rover emphasized Bitcoin’s active addresses, which have maintained a stable average above 900,000 daily. Unlike the sharp spikes in 2017 and 2021, when user activity surged in tandem with price euphoria, 2025 shows a flatter, calmer network curve.
This lack of dramatic address growth points to fewer speculative participants and more consistent engagement. Bitcoin’s rising price, paired with stable usage, reflects a more mature and disciplined ecosystem.
No Signs of Euphoric Top- Yet
Bitcoin’s Z-Score has not crossed 4 during this cycle, and with historical peaks forming above 6, the market shows no signs of euphoric behavior. Analysts tracking this on-chain metric argue the cycle still has runway.
With over 1 million active addresses and rising capital inflows, Bitcoin continues to show strength without mania. The absence of euphoria is a bullish indicator, suggesting that Bitcoin’s next move could be even stronger.
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