Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee, because the next few days could define a historic moment for Bitcoin and Wall Street. Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is just one quarter away from joining the S&P 500. But there’s a catch: it all hinges on Bitcoin staying above a critical support level, but in crypto, anything can happen fast.
Crypto News of the Day: MicroStrategy Inches Toward S&P 500—But It All Depends on Bitcoin
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the publicly traded firm led by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, is on the verge of achieving one of the most prestigious milestones in US markets: inclusion in the S&P 500.
But there’s a catch—Bitcoin must not drop more than 10% before June 30. If it does, MicroStrategy could lose this chance, given the S&P 500 listing criteria.
“To be considered for the S&P 500, a company must report cumulative positive earnings across the past four quarters,” Walton explained.
As of this writing, the pioneer crypto is exchanging hands for $107,119, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
“Strategy has a 91% chance of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500, provided Bitcoin’s price does not fall more than 10% before June 30,” Walton stated.
Walton put the critical support level at $95,240, the minimum BTC price needed to keep Strategy’s quarterly earnings in positive territory.
Walton’s odds model is based on historical BTC behavior. Since September 2014, in over 3,900 six-day periods, Bitcoin fell more than 10% just 343 times (8.7% of the time).
Based on this record of accomplishment, Walton says the longer we go without a drop, the lower the odds get.
“If only two days remain in the quarter, for instance, the chance of a 10% fall drops to 4.2%,” he explained.
If successful, Strategy would become the second crypto-linked firm to join the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase’s historic inclusion in May.
It was also added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024, a sign of growing acceptance of Bitcoin-focused firms in traditional finance (TradFi).
Strategy has posted losses in the past three quarters, and the Q2 figure, heavily influenced by the fair market value of its 592,345 BTC holdings, will make or break its bid.
Recent Bitcoin volatility has made the situation tense. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, threatening Strategy’s position.
MicroStrategy’s New Accounting Standards
A key boost for Strategy has been the adoption of new accounting standards (ASU 2023-08).
The model allows the reflection of unrealized Bitcoin gains and losses in net income, drastically improving the company’s earnings profile in bull markets.
“On January 1, 2025, the Company adopted ASU 2023-08 which requires that bitcoin holdings are remeasured at fair value with gains and losses from change in the fair value of bitcoin recognized in net income (loss) at each reporting period,” Strategy stated in a recent press release.
Beyond the ASU 2023-08, another MicroStrategy innovation is the Bitcoin credit model, which calculates credit risk using Bitcoin price volatility and loan duration, among other factors.
A recent US Crypto News publication highlighted Saylor advocating this tool. Bill Pulte, director of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), is considering using crypto holdings for mortgage qualification in the US.
Could Strategy One Day Top the Global Charts?
Beyond S&P 500 inclusion, Walton has offered an even more ambitious outlook.
“Strategy may one day rise to become the top publicly traded company in the world,” he said in a Financial Times documentary on MicroStrategy in May.
His reasoning? The company’s singular, leveraged exposure to what he called “the best asset and most pristine collateral on the planet.”
“Strategy holds more of the best asset and most pristine collateral on the planet than any other company, by multiples,” Walton articulated.
The firm is continuing to double down on its strategy. As BeInCrypto reported, Saylor hinted at another potential Bitcoin purchase by Strategy, following a familiar pattern of cryptic posts.
If Bitcoin remains stable into the quarter’s close, Strategy may earn a place in the S&P 500. Such a milestone would cement its role as the corporate face of Bitcoin’s financial revolution.
Charts of the Day
Jeff Walton’s MicroStrategy Projections for S&P 500 Inclusion. Source: Jeff Walton 
Strategy’s Bitcoin Purchase Markers. Source: Saylortracker Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
