What’s the most convincing bear case you see that could driv | game_for_one on Binance Square

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What’s the most convincing bear case you see that could drive us below the War low?

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Resolv looks like it hurt nearly everyone on CT. Early entries, oversized bags, and vague unlock info - punished across the board. Has to stop at some point, but catching it right has been a killer.

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Taking someone else's thesis and deciding to follow it isn’t inherently bad, it’s a step up from blindly chasing a “call” with no reasoning behind it. But what people often miss is how much of the outcome depends on how you execute it. You need to align with or consciously adapt their: - Holding horizon - Entry method: Are they fully in? Planning to average up or down? Was it a size-on-confirmation play or early sizing? - Position size: Is this a high-conviction allocation or a small flyer? Can they exit cleanly? Can you, without slippage? - Risk tolerance: Can they sit through a -20% drawdown? Can you? - Access & speed: How active are they? Do they have faster access to updates, info flow than you? Can they pivot quicker? And most importantly, define exit and invalidation conditions: - Time-based: If the thesis relies on attention or a narrative catching on, how long are you willing to wait before calling it? 1 month? 3 months? - Price-based: Where does the structure break? What range invalidates your setup? - Catalyst-based: What if the catalyst leaks early and price runs before the event do you sell into that strength? What if the event passes and the market shrugs, is that your exit? - Macro override: A changing market regime can negate local setups, sometimes it's not about your trade. You can’t predict black swans, but you can define how you'll act when chaos hits - predefine response plans, adjust size, or sideline entirely. Same thesis, different execution = different results.

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Getting attached to a coin after a big win or loss is how you lose clarity. You start forcing trades, chasing past outcomes, and ignoring cleaner setups. That attachment narrows your focus and usually ends in chop. Best move is to detach and stay objective.

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Even Labubu is holding on better than ETH

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Looking at Base onchain vs Sol here - some clear outliers showing up. Given the nature of buyers and participants, Base likely offers better r-r on this dip if you are scalping.

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