From the last issue to today, a lot has happened in the world, which can be described as tense and dangerous. The most eye-catching is the situation in the Middle East. To exaggerate, the news can be said to be a breaking news every minute. Every minute, global traders are probably waiting for major news:
For example, today,
Trump just launched an air strike on Iran;
Iran asked Russia for help;
Trump called on China to influence Iran;
Trump and Israel had publicly wanted to assassinate Iranian leaders and advocated that Iran was changing groups;
Iran announced the launch of the 21st round of "Real Commitment-3" strikes
The incident is still coming...
Yesterday:
Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, which will cause a sharp rise in oil prices and an overall increase in global prices.
… Although Iran vowed to take retaliatory actions, the market seems to underestimate the possibility of a significant escalation of the situation. The United States is putting diplomatic pressure on China to contain Iran, and the reverse guidance in geopolitics seems to be having a soothing effect. Put options tilt remains high throughout September, but the strong rebound in spot markets and the compression of front-end volatility suggest that investors are currently largely ignoring the broader contagion risk.
The same tone is also evident in traditional markets. U.S. stock index futures, crude oil futures and gold futures initially reacted to the news, but then retreated to Friday's levels. This shows that most investors around the world interpret the current situation at this moment as a regional outbreak event rather than a global risk event.
In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell below $100,000 on Sunday, falling 6% to a low of $98,200. This is the lowest level since breaking through the psychological $100,000 mark on May 8. Major altcoins have all been sold off, catalyzed by Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz (a move that would seriously disrupt global oil transportation).
BTC had reached around 98K marked in last week's article last night, and then rebounded slightly to $100,000. The current price is $101,511. This suggests that the weekend's decline was driven by macro factors, with investors turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedging tool while waiting for stock index futures to open. Lack of liquidity exacerbated this trend, triggering more than $1 billion in liquidations across the market.
In this environment of constant fire, it is impossible to talk about possibilities too far ahead, and one can only look at the current situation.
As usual, the article selects the TOP 5 tokens as representatives for analysis. In fact, the entire crypto market basically depends on BTC.
In fact, the situation of BTC is still positive now. It confirmed my speculation in the previous article. Yesterday, a long-legged red candle was formed, touching the support price near 98K US dollars, and then it immediately rebounded. Today, the price is trying to recover, but the recovery is a bit difficult... Yes, it may start to consolidate. This makes the next few trading days particularly important. The market is still at a turning point. Amid continued geopolitical uncertainty, digital assets are hovering between risk-seeking momentum and risk-averse defensiveness.
The good news is that we can see that there is a great possibility that the price of BTC will run in the newly formed channel. However, due to the current environment, I have marked three possible routes in the near future and 4 price ranges that need to be paid attention to:
Blue route---price retraces to around 100K and then runs above the channel;
Pink route---price drops to around 97K first, and then runs above the channel;
Yellow route---price falls out of 97K and runs to 95K or even 93K (this possibility is a conservative estimate if the war in the Middle East escalates again)
According to on-chain data, BTC’s long-term investor holders currently have no intention of selling, which provides solid support for the stability of BTC and the entire crypto market.
$ETH
ETH is a little unexpected for me. Its current price is 2260 USD. But overall it is still within an acceptable range. As long as it does not fall below 1688 USD, it still has the opportunity to develop upward along the previous path.
According to the current situation, I also marked 3 paths that I think are very likely:
Blue path - climbing upward from now on;
Pink path - falling to around 1893 USD, and then turning upward;
Yellow path - if the global market situation is chaotic, the price may continue to fall. I hope that around 1400 USD is a solid support!
It is worth noting that ETH's June par implied volatility has fallen below September, indicating that the short-term idiosyncratic risk premium has compressed. This may reflect the pullback of event-driven hedging, or profit-taking caused by the rise in short-term volatility. This is in stark contrast to BTC, which still has a mild volatility premium at the front end.
XRP has fallen below the $2.0 support that has been hanging on recently yesterday, and even Musk's decision to make XRP the official token in the X wallet has not stopped the price from falling. The current price is $2.0173.
XRP has taken a typical head and shoulders route in the pipeline, so it has a high probability of developing downward. I marked it in the figure, and its next solid support may be $1.5, and then the most important $1, all depending on the international environment.
Of course, there is a certain probability that XRP will turn upward, so I marked the two possible paths.
Pink path - upward development, even rushing out of the pipeline;
Blue path - running down to the bottom of the pipeline, this possibility is slightly greater;
$BNB
Remember the magical price "sign" of BNB near $625? BNB has now taken a new path. It still hovers around $625, but forms an upward sloping channel. In the short term, it will have two possible paths:
Blue path - upward development;
Pink path - downward contact with the bottom price of the channel near $573
$SOL
SOL is currently in a very simple situation, it has lost some momentum. The current operating range is likely to be between $168 and $80.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market remains volatile. The next headline, macroeconomic shift or tail event may become a fuse that can be ignited at any time.
Recent factors affecting the global market:
1. If the local war between Israel and Iran escalates, or even expands its scope and participants, it will be very unfavorable to the market;
2. Monday (June 23): US Purchasing Managers Index
3. Tuesday (June 24): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
4. Wednesday (June 25): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
5. Thursday (June 26): US GDP and unemployment rate data
6. Friday (June 27): US core personal consumption expenditures