Amid ongoing geopolitical tension, three US economic indicators could influence the portfolios of crypto traders and investors. The prospective implications are more concerning, considering the volatility seen in the Bitcoin (BTC) price over the weekend.
Traders looking to capitalize on the expected volatility can front-run the following US economic events this week.
US Economic Indicators To Drive Bitcoin Volatility This Week
According to Lisa Abramowicz, co-host at Bloomberg Surveillance, the US Economic Surprise index has turned the most negative this year. More closely, a growing number of economic indicators are becoming weaker than analysts initially expected.
Bloomberg’s US Economic Surprise index. Source: Lisa Abramowicz on X
Against this backdrop, the following US economic indicators could drive Bitcoin volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tension this week.
Powell Testimony
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, June 24. The testimony is part of his semiannual obligation to present the Fed’s monetary policy report to Congress.
Powell will address the state of the US economy, monetary policy, inflation, employment, and other economic factors before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.
Beyond prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session with lawmakers, which can influence financial markets due to its insights into future Fed policy.
This US economic indicator is of particular importance given the role of the US in the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
After Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz, effectively threatening roughly 25% of global oil flow and spurring energy risk, comments on rate policy in response to energy shocks will be crucial.
Powell’s speech came after the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged despite political pressure from President Donald Trump.
A hawkish speech, signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, may depress Bitcoin, similar to what happened in April 2025 amid Trump tariff woes.
A dovish tone, however, hinting at rate cuts could boost Bitcoin, potentially solidifying its position above $100,000, after the recent decline.
Neutral remarks, such as what happened in February, might keep Bitcoin stable, but volatility will likely persist.
“Chair Powell Testifies – Home Prices & PCE Inflation Index Markets will begin to shift attention away from middle east less any new escalations. Macro items in focus,” market expert Peter Tarr said in a post.
Initial Jobless Claims
Beyond Powell’s speech, crypto markets will also watch the initial jobless claims as the US labor market progressively becomes a formidable macro factor for Bitcoin. For the week ending June 14, US citizens filing for unemployment insurance for the first time reached 245,000.
This exceeded expectations, adding to a streak of claims reflecting the highest readings since last October. Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, however, economists anticipate more initial jobless claims, with a median forecast of 248,000.
Rising claims could signal economic softening, potentially boosting Bitcoin as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts, especially amid Middle East geopolitical tensions fueling risk-off sentiment. On the other hand, lower claims may strengthen the dollar, pressuring crypto prices.
PCE
Rounding up the list of US economic indicators with crypto implications this week is the PCE, the Personal Consumption Expenditures. This macroeconomic data point measures the average price change for goods and services consumed by US households.
The US PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge due to its broad scope and ability to account for consumer substitution.
April’s PCE rose 2.1% YoY, with core PCE at 2.5%. According to data on MarketWatch, economists project the May PCE to rise to 2.3% while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is projected to reach 2.6%.
A higher-than-expected PCE could signal persistent inflation, strengthening the dollar and pressuring the Bitcoin price, especially amid Middle East tensions. A lower PCE may boost Bitcoin by raising rate cut hopes.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $101,450, down by 1.32% in the last 24 hours.
