Whales are gradually building up, retail traders are departing, and the attitude toward bitcoin is at a multi-month low.
Bitcoin's price has remained over $100K despite a decline in sentiment, with significant resistance in the $110K–$112K range.
The FOMC and CPI, two recent macro developments, continue to influence Bitcoin's bullish structure and cause dramatic price swings.
Bitcoin sentiment has hit its lowest point in months, just as large holders quietly accumulate and the price consolidates above $100,000. This divergence between retail mood and whale activity is fueling speculation about the next big move for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
Retail Sentiment Sinks While Whales Stack
Retail traders are stepping back from Bitcoin, with sentiment dropping to a multi-month low and over 37,000 small holders exiting the market, according to CryptoRank. The sentiment ratio, which tracks positive and negative outlooks, has shown a tight correlation with price action between March 18 and June 20, 2025. In late March, Bitcoin traded under $68,000 as the sentiment ratio hovered around 1.25, but by early April, sentiment dipped to 1.00 as BTC slid below $64,000, driving a wave of fear and caution.
After April 10, there was a sharp change in momentum, with Bitcoin taking off again and surpassing $70,000, sending the emotion ratio skyrocketing above 1.75. Both price and emotion crested by the end of May, when Bitcoin hit $90,000 and the ratio hit 2.0, signifying a period of prevailing confidence. June, however, saw a reversal as sentiment dropped back to almost 1.00 even though Bitcoin was still above $87,000, demonstrating a glaring discrepancy between market sentiment and price gains.
Bitcoin Price Action and Key Resistance
The Bitcoin price chart since March 24 shows BTC hovering just above $75,000, with indecisive candles and failed breakouts marking the early weeks. The week of April 7 recorded a sharp drop to $72,000, the quarter’s lowest level, but bullish momentum returned by mid-April. A large green candle pushed BTC past $90,000, marking the strongest single-week gain of the quarter, and was followed by a sustained uptrend through early May.
By May 12, Bitcoin broke above the $100,000 milestone, climbing to a peak near $112,000 by the end of the month. Trading volumes increased during this rally, with strong green candles and minimal sell-side pressure dominating the chart. June has turned choppy, with BTC closing red in two of the past three weeks and selling pressure increasing around the $110,000–$112,000 resistance zone.
Macro Events and Technical Structure
Bitcoin’s macro-driven growth since 2022 has reflected sharp reactions to key CPI and FOMC events, each triggering breakouts or cooldowns in trend, according to a report by Coinvo. The October 2022 CPI event marked the start of accumulation, with Bitcoin trading near $18,000, and by early 2023, another CPI event aligned with a breakout toward $24,000. The rally accelerated after the March 2023 CPI update, lifting BTC above $30,000 by June, while FOMC decisions repeatedly added volatility.
https://twitter.com/ByCoinvo/status/1936061486428045326
From January to May 2025, Bitcoin soared from $70,000 to $106,000, with FOMC meetings prompting only short pullbacks and bulls maintaining structure. The latest CPI tag from June 2025 shows price holding steady above $106,000, while the October 15, 2025 CPI event is highlighted at the $160,000–$170,000 range. Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish with higher lows and explosive recoveries after CPI, mirroring previous setups before vertical moves.
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