Major defense contractors are already seeing the money, even if Trump’s Golden Dome never gets built. The $175 billion missile defense plan might not make it to launch before 2029, but spending has started. That’s all that matters for the industry. Contractors are cashing in. And they’re not waiting around for the Pentagon to test anything.

This came from a new research note written by Douglas Harned, analyst at Bernstein, who said there’s barely any chance the full system will be finished before Trump leaves office. But that won’t stop the checks.

“Even if the system fails to deliver,” Douglas wrote, “we expect elements to survive and for companies to profit off efforts, even when they do not succeed, and spending could go much higher.” So long as the funds are there, defense firms will keep building.

Contractors go all-in while lawmakers expand budgets

Douglas expects L3Harris Technologies, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Boeing to take the lead in getting contracts. He gave Boeing and L3Harris an “overweight” rating and put a $273 price target on L3Harris — that’s almost 10% higher than its last close at $248.83.

His Boeing target is $249, which is about 25% above Wednesday’s close of $197.68. Boeing’s shares are already up 13% this year. L3Harris? Up 19%. And markets were closed on Thursday.

Trump gave a rough cost estimate last month, he said the Golden Dome would need around $175 billion. But Douglas doesn’t buy it. He said the final price tag could be much higher. Already, $25 billion is packed into the 2026 defense budget just for this project.

And the House Appropriations Committee just rolled out a 2026 spending bill with an $831.5 billion defense top-line, including $13 billion specifically carved out for Golden Dome-linked missile defense and space systems. That breaks down to $8.8 billion for missile systems and $4.1 billion for satellite and space integration.

The Congressional Budget Office isn’t optimistic either. They warned the whole thing could end up costing $542 billion. That would make it one of the most expensive military defense undertakings in history — even if it fails. But Douglas said the cost is tied to how wide and flexible the shield needs to be.

“In order to truly defend the entire US,” he wrote, “it will be necessary to go back to a complex multi-layered system that can address a wide range of attacks.” He compared it to cybersecurity. “The cost of true coverage of the US will be extreme, with the problem that the system would always need to evolve as enemies evolve their capabilities.”

Global players respond as politics and rivalry heat up

This whole Golden Dome idea is Trump’s answer to Israel’s Iron Dome, which has proven itself in real-time combat. That system is allegedly intercepting some of the reciprocal attacks from Iran, and it’s showing US officials what a functioning missile defense can actually do.

Patrycja Bazylczyk, research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project, told CNBC via email that “Israeli missile defense inventories have kept up with the Iranian threat — buying decisionmakers valuable time.” She added that American policymakers should pay attention and build inventories now, before facing “far more complex and numerous salvos” from countries like Russia or China.

The Golden Dome isn’t a new idea. It’s a rebirth of Ronald Reagan’s old Strategic Defense Initiative, known as “Star Wars.” That plan died off years ago due to political resistance and tech limitations. But now, with the New START treaty between the US and Russia about to expire, and with China refusing to return to arms control talks since 2024, Trump’s reboot is turning heads. Both rival countries have already been the loudest critics of the Golden Dome, warning it could launch a new arms race.

Inside the defense business, this whole thing looks like a new funding stream. Companies that got squeezed out of NASA contracts are eyeing Golden Dome as a bailout. The Paris Air Show was flooded with defense tech this year — around 45% of the exhibition focused on it. And Lockheed Martin and Boeing were there selling hard. They used the event to push their readiness to support Trump’s plan.

Tim Cahill, Lockheed Martin’s president of Missiles and Fire Control, told Reuters at the show, “We clearly have a whole number of product lines that will contribute very well, that are going to fit very well with what is necessary to achieve the mission.” That wasn’t just a press quote — it was a sales pitch.

There’s still drama. SpaceX, which might’ve been a natural pick for a space-heavy missile defense plan, is now in limbo. Elon Musk’s feud with Trump has left the company’s role uncertain. Other smaller private defense firms are circling the opportunity.

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