The US stablecoin regulation bill, formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS Act), is gaining significant traction. According to data from Polymarket, an online crypto-focused prediction platform, users now give the bill an 89% chance of being signed into law before 2026.This surge in confidence comes just days after the US Senate passed the bill in a 68-30 vote on Tuesday, June 17. The platform launched the betting market less than 24 hours after the vote, quickly attracting attention from cryptocurrency users anticipating next steps in the legislative process.

Trump Pushes for Speedy Passage

President Donald Trump has voiced strong support for the GENIUS Act, urging lawmakers to “get it to [his] desk.” Trump emphasized he would sign the bill "with no add ons" if the House of Representatives passes it quickly. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House, where the bill now awaits a vote.

The GENIUS Act could usher in a new era for digital finance in the United States by enabling regulated issuance of fiat-backed stablecoins. Tech leaders like Apple, Google, and Meta have already been linked to potential stablecoin initiatives, which could accelerate if the bill becomes law.

Crypto Betting Mirrors Market Optimism

Although Polymarket's predictions are speculative, they often reflect growing sentiment within the crypto community. The 89% probability assigned to the bill's passage signals overwhelming optimism among bettors that the legislation will survive the House vote and land on the President’s desk.

Still, Polymarket odds are not a definitive forecast. They simply measure how much users are willing to stake on potential outcomes.

Industry-Wide Implications

If passed, the GENIUS Act would offer the first comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins in the US. It would address licensing, reserve requirements, and disclosure standards, increasing clarity for issuers like Circle and potentially making stablecoins mainstream financial tools.

Additionally, the bill could pave the way for corporate stablecoin issuance, with rumors suggesting companies like Apple and Google are exploring tokenization. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act, another pending piece of legislation, may soon provide further structure by defining regulatory responsibilities across federal agencies.

Uncertainty Over Amendments

While the bill has bipartisan support, some lawmakers have expressed concerns about potential amendments. Critics are particularly focused on connections between the Trump administration and crypto firms like World Liberty Financial, the issuer of stablecoin USD1. However, similar amendments were voted down in the Senate before the bill advanced.

With momentum building, the crypto industry is watching closely. A successful passage could mark a historic shift in how digital assets and payment systems operate in the United States.

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