Bitcoin hovers above its Bull Market Support Band as resistance at $109,471 slows bullish momentum.
June’s historical pattern raises speculation as Bitcoin faces compression near $104,476, testing its macro bullish structure.
Institutional buying and reduced supply boost optimism, but $94,570 support must hold to avoid sentiment breakdown.
Bitcoin is trading just above its Bull Market Support Band after failing to decisively break $109,471 resistance. This phase may resemble previous macro-cycle tops, as June 3rd’s historical relevance continues to surface in market analysis.
June’s Historical Pattern Sparks Attention
Bitcoin’s third-year June window has repeatedly aligned with cycle tops before major bear markets began. This repetition is drawing closer scrutiny from analysts and market participants. The current setup raises serious questions about whether history is preparing to repeat itself, yet again.
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After the breakout phase above $100,000, Bitcoin approached $109,471 but failed to close above that key ceiling. As price now hovers near $104,476, structural momentum appears to be slowing. Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick shows reduced upper wick rejection, a sign that bulls are struggling to push through resistance.
Bitcoin has held above the 20-week EMA and 21-week SMA—its Bull Market Support Band—since March 2023. This support range now sits between $94,570 and $96,508, a zone that has provided consistent bullish bounce points. Market reactions near this band often define the broader cycle trend, and this time is no different.
The price has printed multiple higher lows since November 2022, reinforcing a bullish structure. Yet, with each test of the upper range, strength is diminishing. Bitcoin’s latest weekly high of $109,600 came with a quick rejection, bringing the price back down by over 4% intraday. A pullback to the support band would test trader conviction and potentially define the next leg.
Bear Market Signal or Reaccumulation?
Bitcoin’s alignment with June as a cycle peak date continues to fuel debate over future trajectory. With the 2014 and 2018 cycles both peaking around June 3rd, many are asking—will 2025 follow the same rhythm?
This current structure includes clear resistance at $109,471, compressing price action and suppressing volatility. Bitcoin has seen a $6,200 intrarange spread this week alone, revealing indecision. Despite strong institutional accumulation and decreasing liquid supply, breakout momentum has stalled.
Source: (X)
The broader mood around Bitcoin remains optimistic, but cautious. Price behavior now mirrors prior Wyckoff-style reaccumulation, and the psychological level at $110,000 has proven sticky. Traders must evaluate whether this is a final consolidation before fresh all-time highs or the calm before a trend reversal.
Bitcoin will need to hold the Bull Market Support Band convincingly to maintain the macro bullish structure. A close below $94,570 could mark a critical breakdown in sentiment. With Tether minting $1B in new USDT and historical echoes stacking, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture—testing its structure, memory, and momentum.
