Because of institutional acceptance, Bitcoin continues to sustain its value above $100,000 as long-term holders support market stability in the face of global concerns.
The pinnacle of a rising wedge pattern that began in 2021 points to a possible explosive breakthrough or quick retracement in the upcoming weeks.
Geopolitical tensions are validating the hedging function of Bitcoin, as every conflict-related decline is being gradually followed by normal recoveries and accumulation phases.
Because long-term holders control the market's structure, Bitcoin continues to maintain its strong momentum despite global shocks. The currency has maintained a notable upward trend despite heightened international tensions, underscoring its mature market features.
Geopolitical Fear Meets Technical Strength
Bitcoin's recent trend reflects a broader market tendency to absorb macro-level volatility and convert it into buying pressure. From late 2022's below-$20,000 marker to over $105,000 as of June of 2025, the currency has weathered a series of geopolitical tensions. The trend suggests that institutional buyers increasingly view Bitcoin as a solid crisis asset.
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Here in the trend, the analyst Stockmoney Lizards points to Bitcoin's ability to violently bounce back from every war-related dip. Five major events post-2022, like the war in Ukraine and escalations between Israel and Iran, have coincided with colossal upside swings. The analysts believe that these reactions reflect an ongoing phase of accumulation masked by short-term price volatility. Key psychological levels, first $70,000 in early 2024, and later $100,000 in early 2025, were violated during these spikes in geopolitical tension.
Examining the structure of the market, Bitcoin has formed a broad rising wedge pattern since 2021, currently heading to a pivotal peak. It is a structure usually preceding a spectacular breakout. The analyst also notes that price re-testing resistance levels at high volume, especially after April's 18% fall, indicates strong conviction buying. Most importantly, however, the RSI remains neutral-to-bullish, showing room for further upside without causing instant exhaustion.
Long-Term Holders Anchor Market Stability
The structure of Bitcoin's holders gives some background information on the persistent strength. Long-term holder supply, holders who have not transferred their Bitcoin on a move in over 155 days, has held above 5.5 million BTC since early 2023. Short-term supply, on the other hand, is less than 4 million BTC despite the price increase of Bitcoin to more than $100,000. This direction suggests inherent conviction and structural maturity.
Source: (X)
Not only that, but the analysts observe that earlier cycles saw long-term holders selling during bull cycles. But now they are holding on. This has led to fewer cascading liquidations and less volatility in total. Adding on to this, the analyst believes institutions are becoming more and more the driving force of Bitcoin price action. As retail investors' panic selling subsides, the smart money appears to be the dominant force.
Despite this, the chart still shows a high-risk environment. The wedge pattern that is nearing its peak shows that it is volatility that is imminent, to the upside or downside. Macro behavior monitors notice that prolonged conflict headlines tend to further cause flight-to-safety inflows into Bitcoin, further accumulating its role as a geopolitical hedge.
Hikes Hinge on Structural Breakout
While current momentum is bullish, all eyes are now on whether Bitcoin can decisively breach the rising wedge resistance. The analysts warn that false breakouts remain a possibility, especially if short-term holders come back in on hype. However, with strong on-chain signals and a history of macro uncertainty, Bitcoin's trend suggests that dips would be taken as opportunities by larger players. As Bitcoin forms up over $105,000, the market appears poised, either for explosive extension or severe recoil, on structural integrity and broader risk attitude.
