🤑 The Fed's balance sheet has grown by $4.3 billion in one week!

▪️ Bloomberg Economics:

- The rise in oil prices to $100-130 will provoke an increase in inflation in the US and the Fed may return to raising the rate.

▪️ Conference Board:

- Uncertainty over tariffs is weighing on price growth and employment, creating risks of “significant economic shocks” in the coming months .

▪️ Fast Company:

- Trump's trade policy could trigger a rise in inflation in June-September of this year.

▪️ Goldman Sachs:

- The chance of a recession in the next year has dropped to 30% due to moderate inflation.

▪️ MarketWatch:

- The risk of recession remains – unemployment is likely to rise until 2027.

📌 Market expectations ( #FED ):

- June 18: PAUSE (probability = 97%).

- July 30: PAUSE.

- September 17: a decrease of 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%.

- October 29: PAUSE.

- December 10: a decrease of 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%.

- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.

- March 18, 2026: a reduction of 25 bps to 3.50-3.75%.