Ethereum stayed just under the EMA50 level while traders waited for a clear weekly close above $2,573
Past breakouts from the 50-week average have triggered moves up to 55 percent across major market cycles
Current chart signals suggest a confirmed move above $2,573 could open the path to a $3,500 short-term rally
Ethereum traded at $2,519 on June 8 while testing its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $2,573. Price currently sits just under this long-term indicator, which historically acted as a launch point for strong breakout rallies. Traders are watching for signs of a confirmed move above it.
Source: X EMA50 Historically Marks Major Breakouts
The 50-week EMA on the ETH/USDT chart has played a critical role during previous cycles. When Ethereum closed above this level, it often led to double-digit gains. These moves included breakouts of +24%, +38%, +50%, and even +55% during past market recoveries.
At present, the 50-week EMA stands at $2,573 while ETH trades $54 below that line. Each prior crossover led to aggressive upside within several weeks. These previous rallies ranged from 418 points to 1,363 points in magnitude, suggesting significant volatility upon confirmation.
Black arrows mark these key breakouts where price crossed above the EMA and gained strength in a short span. Traders continue to use this level as a trigger point. A sustained close above $2,573 may open the path toward $3,500 as projected by previous historical averages.
Price Structure Points to Potential Rally
Ethereum's current structure mirrors past cycles where price consolidated before breaking the EMA50. The chart shows a series of consistent patterns where horizontal resistance aligns with the moving average. Once price cleared this threshold, bullish continuation followed.
The projection box on the right side of the chart outlines a +25% to +38% potential upside from the current zone. If Ethereum repeats similar behavior, it could rally from $2,519 to approximately $3,500 in coming weeks. This projection matches previous average breakouts.
Previous rejections at the EMA50 also led to short-term corrections, emphasizing the level’s importance. Should ETH fail to cross this average convincingly, price could stall or pull back. The structure suggests the next few candles will determine the near-term direction.
Traders Monitor Weekly Candle Closures
Traders are now focused on how the weekly candle closes in relation to the 50-week EMA. A close above $2,573 would signal a potential trend change. On the other hand, another rejection could extend the current sideways phase.
Price momentum and volume will likely play key roles in validating the next move. If the volume aligns with upward momentum, a breakout scenario becomes more plausible. Without volume, moves above the EMA50 often lack follow-through.
Ethereum’s historical EMA breakouts provide a reliable template that many market participants reference. With price hovering within 2% of the breakout level, volatility may increase soon. Current data points suggest this area could act as a springboard.
