JPMorgan: Australia’s April Inflation May Ease to 2% YoY, Supported by Energy Relief
According to Jinshi Data, Ben Jarman, Chief Economist at JPMorgan Chase, forecasts that Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 2% year-on-year in April, marking the weakest inflation print since October 2024.
The moderation in inflation is attributed in part to government electricity subsidies, which are expected to lower household energy costs and contribute to easing headline CPI figures.
Breakdown by Category: Mixed Price Pressures Expected
Jarman projects a slight increase in prices across key consumer categories:
Food, clothing, and health: Minor upticks in pricing
Transport, communication, and furniture: Modest price declines expected
The balanced inflation outlook reflects stable demand and targeted cost relief measures, softening price pressures across non-energy sectors.
Rate Cut Outlook: Two Reductions Expected in 2025
Jarman stated that the inflation trajectory supports two interest rate cuts, likely to be delivered by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August and November 2025, barring any unexpected macroeconomic shocks.
“The inflation trend is in line with our expectation for two rate cuts later this year,” he noted, suggesting a gradually dovish shift by the RBA as inflation falls within its target band.