Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is at an all time high after Arthur Hayes’ speech at Token2049 in Dubai where he predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year and $1 million by 2028. Speaking with Anna Tutova of Fortune, Hayes said the macroeconomic backdrop and US fiscal instability is setting the grounds for a big flight into decentralized assets.
Why Arthur Hayes Thinks Bitcoin Will Outrun Every Asset Class
Hayes, now CIO of Maelstrom and a leading macro-crypto analyst, drew a straight line between monetary excess and Bitcoin’s upside.
“I think Bitcoin dominance will continue to go up. I think Bitcoin in this next little run could go to $200,000,” Hayes told Tutova. “And by the end of the year, my Bitcoin price target is about $250,000.”
His thesis is based on growing global anxiety around the US Treasury’s ballooning deficits. He believes Washington’s fiscal recklessness, masked by opaque liquidity injections via the Treasury General Account, is debasing the dollar and inflating asset prices underneath. This stealth easing, he says, is driving capital into non-sovereign stores of value.
Hayes explained:
“This is all about monetization. The US government is spending at a record pace… and it’s not being funded through taxes or real bond demand. Bitcoin benefits from that because it’s not attached to any of this madness.”
$1M Bitcoin by 2028
$1M Bitcoin by 2028? Hayes Doubles Down on the Long-Term Vision
While the $250,000 end of year target raised some eyebrows, it was Hayes’ $1 million Bitcoin long term target that really crystallized his thesis.
“I think by the end of Trump’s presidency, the end of 2028, Bitcoin will be about $1 million,” he said.
The logic behind that estimate is the structural weakness of US sovereign debt. Hayes points to cracks in the bond market and the Federal Reserve’s inability to raise rates without blowing up the system. In that context, he sees Bitcoin not as a speculation but as an emerging monetary hedge and eventual alternative to fiat currency.
He’s said the same in his recent blog post The Periphery where he wrote,
“All fiat currencies are heading to zero, some just get there faster than others. Bitcoin is where the exodus will land.”
Altcoin Season Hasn’t Happened Yet But It’s Coming
Despite the meme coins and layer-2 hype, Hayes is adamant that true altcoin season hasn’t started yet. He thinks Bitcoin’s dominance must peak before capital rotates to more speculative assets.
In the interview he said:
“Altcoin season comes after Bitcoin goes parabolic. It’s a game of musical chairs. Bitcoin leads, altcoins follow. We haven’t even started yet.”
This cycle will be different, he says, because institutional infrastructure is more developed. With Bitcoin spot ETFs and more asset managers on board, the first half of this bull run will be more Bitcoin heavy. Altcoins, especially those tied to real world assets or AI, will catch up in the second half of 2025.
ETF Flows, Liquidity Tailwinds, and Global Risk Aversion
Hayes’ view aligns with several broader market trends. Bitcoin ETF inflows have been steady with over $13 billion in cumulative net inflows into US listed spot BTC ETFs since January. This influx led by BlackRock and Fidelity products is compressing supply and intensifying demand.
Geopolitical uncertainty, US China tensions to renewed Middle East instability is driving interest in apolitical assets like Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is the only financial asset without counterparty risk. That’s becoming more valuable by the day” said Hayes.
He also pointed out an unusual feature of this cycle: the Fed is not cutting rates. Historically, crypto surges when the Fed eases. But this time prices are going up even with rates at multi decade highs, so demand must be stronger than in previous cycles.
$1M Bitcoin by 2028
Skepticism Remains But Hayes’ Track Record Counts
While some may view Hayes’ Bitcoin price predictions as too bullish, it’s worth noting his past predictions including Bitcoin’s bottom at $20,000 in 2022 have been correct. He was one of the few high profile investors to call the post COVID liquidity wave that sent BTC to $60,000 in 2021.
Still, some analysts caution that volatility and regulation could kill Hayes’ outlook. But Hayes is unfazed.
“Volatility is a feature not a bug” he said. “I’m long Bitcoin. Everything else is just noise.”
Conclusion: Bitcoin as a Macroeconomic Hedge
Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction is not just a headline, it’s a larger thesis on the failure of traditional monetary systems and the rise of decentralized alternatives. Whether BTC gets to $250K in 2025 or not, his forecast shows a growing view among investors that global finance is entering unknown territory and Bitcoin is the anchor.
As crypto heads into a potentially wild second half of the year, Hayes’ words will be both motivation and provocation. Investors should pay attention not just to the numbers but to the trends behind them.
FAQs
Who is Arthur Hayes?
Arthur Hayes is the co-founder of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, a crypto-focused investment firm.
What is Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?
$250,000 by the end of 2025.
Why does Hayes believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million?
Collapsing trust in U.S. fiscal policy and long-term inflation.
What does Hayes say about altcoins?
Altcoin season hasn’t started yet but will once Bitcoin dominance peaks.
How does Hayes view Bitcoin compared to traditional assets?
Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign risk and the most robust store of value in a failing fiat system.
Glossary
Bitcoin Dominance: The percentage of total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin.
Altcoin Season: When altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation.
Fiscal Deficit: When a government spends more money than it earns through revenue, so it borrows or prints money.
Liquidity Injection: Central banks or treasuries inject money into the system to support markets or the economy.
Spot ETF: An ETF that holds the asset itself (e.g. Bitcoin) rather than futures contracts.
Sources
DLNews: Hayes’ Dual Narrative
NewsBitcoin
Fortune
Read More: Arthur Hayes’ $250K Bitcoin Forecast Sparks Debate">Arthur Hayes’ $250K Bitcoin Forecast Sparks Debate
