The forecast was made by JPMorgan. What are the reasons why a major bank believes that Bitcoin is more promising than gold, and why is the first cryptocurrency being compared to precious metals?
Bitcoin has more potential for growth than gold, thanks to catalysts specific to cryptocurrencies and growing institutional acceptance, writes Decrypt, citing a report by JPMorgan, which predicts that Bitcoin will surpass the precious metal in terms of returns in the second half of 2025.
In 2025, the price of gold showed one of the strongest growth dynamics. Since the beginning of January, the asset has grown by more than 22%, outperforming the major stock indices tracking US company share prices — the S&P 500 and NASDAQ100, which showed growth of up to 2% over the same period, according to TradingView data on May 16. At the same time, Bitcoin rose 11% to $104,100.
“We expect the zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin that began at the start of the year to continue through the end of the year, but believe that catalysts for cryptocurrencies will create greater upside potential for Bitcoin relative to gold in the second half of the year,” JPMorgan noted.
A zero-sum game is a term from game theory where the gain of one side or group is offset by the loss of the other.
“From mid-February to mid-April, gold rose at the expense of Bitcoin [a zero-sum game], while in the last three weeks we have seen the opposite, i.e., Bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” The Block report quotes.
The comparison of Bitcoin to gold stems in part from its relative scarcity. Like the limited supply of precious metals, Bitcoin's blockchain is designed to automatically slow down the rate at which new coins are created through approximately four-year cycles, or so-called halving. As a result, only 21 million BTC will ever be in circulation.
With the arrival of the new administration in the US and Donald Trump's inauguration as president, not only cryptocurrency experts began to note the similarities between Bitcoin and gold, but also government officials. For example, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that people use Bitcoin as virtual, digital gold and do not use it as a form of payment or a store of value, noting that the main cryptocurrency “is not a competitor to the dollar, it is a real competitor to gold.” A March 6 executive order by US President Donald Trump describing plans to create a state reserve of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also noted that “due to its scarcity and security, Bitcoin is often referred to as ‘digital gold.’”
Over the past three weeks, the upward trend in gold has diverged from other markets. For example, since April 22, when gold reached its historic high of around $3,500 per ounce, the price of bitcoin has risen by approximately 19%, while the price of gold has fallen by 8.5% from its peak.
JPMorgan analysts noted that this dynamic is driven not only by the weakening of gold, but also by catalysts specific to cryptocurrencies. Companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet continue to buy more Bitcoin. Some US states are also planning to add Bitcoin to their reserves. For example, New Hampshire now allows up to 5% of state assets to be invested in Bitcoin and gold, according to The Block.
Many other companies have followed Strategy's example. These include the largest US mining company MARA, the US retail chain for game consoles, computer games, and gaming accessories GameStop, as well as the Japanese investment company Metaplanet and even companies from the healthcare sector.
“As the list grows and other US states potentially consider adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could prove to be a more sustainable positive catalyst for Bitcoin,” analysts write.
JPMorgan noted the “maturation” of the crypto derivatives market as a separate point. As an argument, experts cited recent deals by US exchanges — Coinbase bought the largest crypto options exchange Deribit, and Kraken acquired the retail futures trading platform NinjaTrader. Gemini received a license to offer derivatives throughout Europe. Analysts say these events could stimulate more active institutional participation in the crypto space.