We saw same patterns back in both 2008 and 2020
Both times $BTC followed and pumped after a stock
I researched all the data: Here is how it will be this time🧵👇
1/➱ Stocks are ripping higher again
🕷 After one of the sharpest selloffs since 2020, the rally is catching fire
🕷 And with 60% of households exposed to stocks, everyone’s watching
🕷 The big question: is this another fakeout - or the start of something real?
2/➱ There are three main scenarios from here:
1. Fast rebound to new highs
2. Deeper leg lower
3. Sideways grind
🕷 Each has historical precedent - and very different implications for risk assets
3/➱ A V-shape bounce would need a real shift in sentiment
🕷 In 2020 and 2009, stocks roared back thanks to massive Fed liquidity
🕷 This time? The Fed isn’t printing - but earnings are holding up, and gas prices are falling. Not a zero chance.
4/➱ But one big overhang remains: tariffs
🕷 The U.S. just locked in a 3.6% average China tariff
🕷 Officials say it’s only the beginning, and over $2T in trade could be hit
🕷 GDP could take a 1.5% hit - not enough for panic, but a drag on growth
6/➱ Could stocks crash lower? It’s happened before.
🕷 Post-bounce breakdowns hit hard in 2001 and 2008
🕷 Both started with a single negative GDP quarter - just like we got in Q1 2025
🕷 So we’re watching the next print closely
7/➱ But recessions aren’t just about GDP - labor data is key
🕷 In 2008, layoffs spiked as GDP turned negative
🕷 But in 2025, jobless claims are still flat
🕷 If claims stay flat, the economy may avoid a full-blown contraction - for now
8/➱ That brings us to scenario 3: a sideways grind
🕷 We saw this in 1998 and 2011
🕷 Stocks dropped 15–20%, then chopped sideways for months before recovering
🕷 It’s a frustrating setup for bulls and bears alike, but historically it ends with new highs
9/➱ So what does this mean for crypto?
🕷 Historically, $BTC and $ETH move with liquidity - and right now, liquidity is tight
🕷 If stocks consolidate, crypto likely follows
🕷 But unlike equities, crypto has stronger narratives: ETH upgrades, ETF flows, and adoption trends
10/➱ But here’s the twist: crypto can lead equities
🕷 In early 2023, BTC bottomed months before the Nasdaq
🕷 If macro uncertainty clears faster than expected, crypto could reprice first
🕷 We’re watching $ETH and $BTC for early signals
11/➱ Tariffs may hurt stocks, but they could drive more capital into non-sovereign assets
🕷 Bitcoin thrives on distrust, and if trade tensions escalate, that narrative could strengthen
🕷 That’s not the trade today, but it’s building quietly
12/➱ A sideways equity market is the base case, with downside risks tied to growth and policy
🕷 Crypto likely mirrors that chop short-term - but could front-run any upside if macro improves
🕷 In this kind of environment, patience and selectivity are edge