Bitcoin’s price patterns suggest a possible move to $102600 which holds the highest reversal probability now.
Wedge shapes on both CME and Binance data show strong signals that could lead to sharp market shifts soon.
The projected range from $95840 to $105070 shows large trading space and attracts investor attention this week.
A recent chart breakdown shows Bitcoin’s price holding near $105,000, with four possible reversal scenarios mapped out using probability estimates. The analysis, shared on May 11, 2025, assigns outcome probabilities of 20%, 35%, 30%, and 15% for potential short-term price directions. Price levels ranging from $95,840 to $105,070 have been outlined with targets and formations to guide traders.
Source: X
Two technical formations, a rising wedge and a falling wedge, have shaped this forecast, showing converging patterns in opposing directions.
Technical Structures Signal Conflicting Outcomes
The chart outlines a rising wedge followed by a falling wedge, both appearing in close sequence on CME and Binance data. The rising wedge ended near a double-top pattern around $105,000, pointing to resistance levels with increased sell pressure.
Following this, a falling wedge emerged, typically seen as a bullish setup. However, the breakout remained within the larger wedge’s upper boundary, suggesting hesitation. The chart labels two tops—Top 1 and Top 2—near the $105,000 zone, suggesting exhaustion signals.
The wedge patterns are tracked across two Bitcoin sources—CME and Binance—where price movements closely mirror each other. Despite minor divergence, their convergence adds confidence to the probability framework being used. This dual-data structure allows for tighter forecasting and more reliable targets.
Probability Zones Highlight Key Price Levels
The analysis divides potential reversal zones into four levels based on likelihood. Each zone represents a distinct trading outcome. A 20% chance is given for an upward continuation beyond $105,070, marked by a blue arrow.
A 35% probability is assigned to a drop toward $102,600, suggesting this is the most likely near-term move. The 30% level aligns with $100,665, indicating a possible lower test of demand if $102,600 fails. Finally, a 15% probability drop to $95,840 presents the most bearish case.
Targets for both patterns are displayed within the wedge zones, allowing traders to measure potential outcomes visually. Support and resistance levels have been derived from recent trend interactions and formation conclusions.
The price range analysis accounts for nearly $10,000 in volatility, showing wide trader exposure risk. Therefore, market participants must monitor these defined zones closely for breakout or breakdown confirmation.
Price Spread Between CME and Binance Adds Insight
An important observation is the close alignment between Bitcoin CME and Binance prices throughout the forecast window. The overlapping lines suggest low spread volatility between both sources. This allows the forecast to present a cleaner, unified market outlook.
The chart also visualizes how price moves within the overlapping structures. Despite high activity, price stayed largely within the identified wedge boundaries. This adds value to the assigned probabilities by framing them inside controlled pattern breaks.
Analyst feedback on the post appreciated the quantified approach. One noted the rare use of specific odds instead of vague predictions. Others pointed out that combining pattern logic with exchange alignment added depth to this short-term market outlook.
