The historic four-year cycle that has defined Bitcoin’s price movements may face disruption due to President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto executive order, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. Hougan believes that the crypto market’s boom-and-bust cycle may become shorter and less severe as institutional adoption accelerates.
How Trump’s Order Could Reshape Bitcoin’s Market Cycles
Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle has followed a pattern of major pullbacks in 2014, 2018, and 2022, with peaks in the intervening years. Traditionally, these downturns were triggered by market crashes, bankruptcies, and regulatory crackdowns—such as the SEC’s ICO clampdown in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022.
However, Hougan argues that the mainstreaming of crypto under the Trump administration could soften future market corrections. He states:
“The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026.”
Institutional Involvement: A Game-Changer for Bitcoin
Trump’s January 23 executive order introduced:
A regulatory framework for digital assets
A potential national digital asset reserve
Easier crypto custody for banks after the repeal of SAB 121
Hougan believes these moves will attract institutional players in ways never seen before. While Bitcoin ETFs have already funneled billions into the market, a federal crypto reserve and Wall Street’s deeper involvement could bring trillions in capital.
With banks and investment giants moving aggressively into crypto, the sell-offs and crashes that characterized previous cycles may become less extreme.
Bitcoin’s Future: $200K by 2025?
Bitwise maintains its $200,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025, citing institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and growing mainstream adoption as key drivers. Hougan suggests that Bitcoin could hit this milestone even without a U.S. government Bitcoin reserve, but Trump’s policies could accelerate adoption.
While the four-year cycle may not completely disappear, future market pullbacks could be shorter and shallower, signaling a new era for crypto’s price stability.
