🗓 July 23, 2025 | Bitcoin Market Recap
🇺🇸 U.S.–Japan Tariff Deal in the Works
* Trump’s latest post: Japan to invest \$550 billion into the U.S.; in return, auto tariffs may be cut from 25% to 15%.
* The U.S. to retain 90% of the investment returns, while mutual tariffs may drop from 25% → 15%.
* Steel & aluminum tariffs (50%) remain unchanged, but autos, trucks, rice, and agriculture markets will open to the U.S.
* Joint LNG development in Alaska is also being discussed.
🌐 Other Global Tariff Deals
* Philippines: Mutual tariffs lowered from 20% to 19%; deal likely focused on military cooperation.
* Tariff deal summary:
* 🇬🇧 UK: 10% mutual tariff, autos under 100k units/year get lower rate
* 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Tariffs dropped from 40% → 20%
* 🇮🇩 Indonesia: \~19%
* 🇯🇵 Japan: Secured strong terms despite being a large exporter
🏦 Fed Commentary & Rate Outlook
* Powell & Bowman speeches: No major interest rate signals before the July 30 FOMC
* July rate decision: Market expects rate hold (97% probability)
* September cut chances: Slightly improving, but still uncertain
* Bowman’s message: Emphasized Fed independence and the need to consider diverse perspectives
💣 Japan Bond Market Stress
* 40-year JGB auction sees lowest demand since 2011
* Rising inflation + lack of rate hikes = loss of investor confidence
* Ruling party defeat & upcoming resignation of PM Shigeru Ishiba (a known rate-hike advocate)
* Risk of Yen carry trade unwinding, similar to the August 2024 shock, is increasing
### ₿ Bitcoin & ETH Divergence
* Bitcoin: Briefly broke above \$120K (+2%), despite ETF outflows (BlackRock = 0 inflow 2 days straight)
* Ethereum: Price lagged, but saw \$530M ETF inflow
* → ETF flow and price movement are now decoupled, indicating new market dynamics
🔍 Bitcoin Technical Watch
* Key support: \$117,000–\$120,000 range
* CME Gap at \$114,400 — breach could signal breakdown in momentum
* Sideways movement near highs may trigger altcoin rally
📉
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