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Cổ phiếu Tesla vừa bật tăng 7,7% sau giờ giao dịch, nhưng nhà đầu tư kỳ cựu như Gary Black lại rời tàu. Vì sao? Ông cho rằng định giá đã tách rời thực tế: lợi nhuận giảm, doanh số sụt, mà P/E lại vọt lên 188x. Dù Elon tuyên bố “quay lại làm việc,” niềm tin không còn như xưa. Các cổ đông bắt đầu đòi hỏi: Elon phải làm đủ 40 giờ/tuần tại Tesla, lập kế hoạch kế nhiệm rõ ràng, và chấm dứt các dự án ngoài lề. Một bức thư gửi thẳng cho Chủ tịch hội đồng quản trị tố cáo Tesla đang rơi vào khủng hoảng. Lợi nhuận giảm 71%, doanh số mất 13%, còn hình ảnh công ty thì “rạn nứt toàn cầu.” Khi niềm tin lung lay, giá tăng cũng không giữ chân nổi nhà đầu tư. Và đó mới là điều đáng sợ.
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$BTC

Bitcoin is surging, and Wall Street is making big moves behind the scenes. Institutional capital is pouring in, ETF inflows are breaking records, and on-chain signals scream opportunity. But is this the start of a historic bull run, or a trap for the unwary? Let’s dive into a rigorous, multi-layered analysis of Bitcoin’s market dynamics to uncover why the smart money is betting big—and what it means for YOU. Buckle up, this is a deep dive! 🧠💸
1. Technical Analysis: Decoding Bitcoin’s Price Action30-Day Timeframe: Consolidation with Bullish Bias
👨‍💻Price Action: Bitcoin is trading near $111,000 as of May 26, 2025, after hitting an all-time high of $111,900 this week. It’s consolidating within a $97,000–$111,000 range, forming a potential ascending triangle pattern, a bullish setup. Key support lies at $100,000 (recent breakout level), with resistance at $111,900 (ATH). A break above $111,900 targets $123,000 (200% Fibonacci extension of the 2021–2022 drop) and $156,000 (261.8% extension). A drop below $100,000 could test $92,000, with critical support at $70,000 (previous ATH).
🤖Indicators:
👀RSI: The daily RSI is at 68, approaching overbought territory (>70). However, a negative divergence is forming, as RSI is not confirming new price highs, signaling potential short-term weakness.
🤖MACD:
A bullish crossover occurred last week, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating strengthening momentum. The histogram is expanding, supporting bullish continuation.
🤖Bollinger Bands:
Price is hugging the upper band, reflecting high volatility. Bands are widening, suggesting a big move is imminent. Historically, low RSI Bollinger % levels (seen in March 2025) marked local bottoms, and current levels suggest exhaustion of downside pressure.
🤖Volume Trends:
Positive volume balance shows high volume on up days and low volume on down days, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Daily transaction volume is at 116M BTC, well above the 30-day average of 54M BTC, indicating strong network activity.
🤖Chart Description:
Imagine a daily candlestick chart showing Bitcoin’s price coiling within a tightening range ($97K–$111K). The 50-day SMA ($95K) acts as dynamic support, while the 200-day SMA ($85K) is far below, confirming the long-term uptrend. Volume spikes align with breakouts above $100K.
6-Month Timeframe: Structural Bull Market
👀Price Action:
Bitcoin has rallied 600% from its 2022 low of $16,000, breaking past $100K in December 2024. The long-term chart shows a parabolic uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows since Q4 2023. Key support is at $70K (2021 ATH), with no significant resistance until $123K–$156K. Compared to 2017 and 2021 cycles, the current rally is less euphoric, with shallower corrections (20–30% vs. 50%+ in prior cycles).
🤖Indicators:
🤖RSI: Monthly RSI is at 75, high but not at the >80 levels seen at 2017/2021 tops. This suggests room for further upside before a cycle peak.
🤖MACD: The monthly MACD is firmly bullish, with no signs of bearish divergence, unlike late 2021.
🤖Bollinger Bands: Price is riding the upper band on the monthly chart, with bands expanding, typical of strong bull runs.Volume: On-chain volume between $30K–$40K and $70K–$100K acts as a strong support zone due to heavy historical transacted supply.
👨‍💻On-Chain Metrics:
👀Exchange Inflows/Outflows:
Glassnode data shows sustained exchange outflows, with whale wallets accumulating tens of thousands of BTC. Net outflows signal reduced selling pressure and a supply squeeze.
🧐MVRV Ratio: The MVRV Z-score is at 3 (December 2024), up from <1 in early 2023 (bear market bottom). Historical cycle tops occurred above 7, suggesting Bitcoin is not yet at a peak.
🧐SOPR: The Spent Output Profit Ratio is below February 2025 levels, indicating long-term holders are not aggressively selling, unlike prior tops.
🧐Miner Activity: Hash rate is at all-time highs, reflecting miner confidence and network security. Miner profitability is stable post-halving, supporting price stability.
🧐Market Cycle Comparison: The 2025 rally mirrors 2017’s post-halving surge but with stronger institutional backing (e.g., ETF inflows). Unlike 2021’s retail-driven mania, current price action is driven by structural demand, reducing the risk of a sharp crash.
2. Fundamental Analysis: The Macro and Network Picture
🤔Macro Drivers
👨‍💻Interest Rates: Bitcoin has a -0.65 correlation with interest rates. Global central banks are pausing rate cuts, with a slight uptick in net rate changes in late 2024. If rate hikes accelerate, this could cap Bitcoin’s upside in H2 2025.
👨‍💻Inflation: Bitcoin’s 0.38 correlation with inflation supports its narrative as an inflation hedge. Rising inflation expectations (post-Trump tariffs) are driving institutional interest.
👨‍💻Geopolitical Events: Trade war concerns and Trump’s tariff policies have introduced volatility, with ETF outflows peaking at $1B on Feb 25, 2025. However, pro-crypto cabinet members (e.g., RFK Jr. with $1M–$5M BTC holdings) signal potential regulatory easing.
👨‍💻ETF Approvals: Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, have amassed $36B in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT holding 568,000 BTC. This institutional FOMO is a key driver, outpacing gold ETF returns by 65%.
👀Regulatory Crackdowns: China’s ongoing crypto bans and global KYC/AML scrutiny remain risks, but U.S. signals of a “National Strategic Reserve” (up to 1M BTC) could counterbalance negative regulatory impacts.
👨‍💻Network Health
👀Hash Rate: All-time highs reflect robust network security and miner commitment, supporting long-term price stability.
🧐Adoption Metrics: Active wallet addresses are growing, correlating with price appreciation. Institutional inflows (e.g., MicroStrategy’s 439,000 BTC) and corporate adoption (e.g., Ferrari, El Salvador) signal mainstream traction.
👨‍💻Taproot Adoption: Taproot upgrades are improving transaction efficiency and privacy, enhancing Bitcoin’s utility. Adoption is steady but not yet a dominant price driver.
🤓Competitive Landscape
😎Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Bitcoin’s dominance has risen from 38% (2022) to 60% (2025), reflecting capital rotation into BTC over altcoins like Ethereum and Solana.
🧐Stablecoins: The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) shows $20B of stables on exchanges, indicating sidelined capital ready to flow into BTC.
😎Gold/S&P 500: Bitcoin’s 0.51 correlation with the S&P 500 shows it moves with risk assets, but its 600% rally since 2022 far outpaces gold (flat) and the S&P 500 (20% annualized). Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold” by investors like Ray Dalio.
3. Sentiment Analysis: The Pulse of the Market
🤔Social Metrics
👀Crypto Twitter/Reddit/Telegram: NLP analysis from Santiment shows bullish sentiment dominating, with hashtags like #BitcoinETF and #BTCto150K trending. Google Trends data indicates rising public interest, correlating with price spikes.
👀Key Narratives: Discussions focus on institutional adoption (70% positive), ETF inflows (65% positive), and technological advancements (60% positive). Negative sentiment around regulatory risks (20%) is overshadowed by optimism.
👀Contrarian Flag: High social media euphoria (e.g., Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency) often precedes corrections. Current sentiment is greedy but not at 2021 peak levels.
Fear & Greed Index
🧐The index is at 36 (“Extreme Fear”) as of January 2025, misaligned with bullish price action. Historically, fear at this level signals buying opportunities, as seen in March 2017 and November 2020.
Futures Market
🤔Open Interest: Rebounding after a dip in February 2025, signaling renewed speculative interest. OI is at $35B, below the $50B peak in March 2022, suggesting room for leverage-driven upside.
🤔Funding Rates: Positive but not overheated, indicating balanced long/short positions. No extreme leverage like 2021, reducing liquidation risk.
🤔Liquidation Clusters: Major liquidation zones are at $90K (support) and $120K (resistance), per CoinMetrics. A break above $120K could trigger a short squeeze.
4. Trending Topics: What’s Driving the Narrative?
🧐Halving Anticipation (Validity: High, Longevity: 6–12 months, Impact: 8/10)
The 2024 halving reduced block rewards, tightening supply. Historical halvings (2016, 2020) preceded 300–600% rallies. Speculation is fueling institutional FOMO.
🧐Spot ETF Speculation (Validity: High, Longevity: 3–6 months, Impact: 9/10)
ETF inflows ($36B since January 2024) are a structural driver. BlackRock and Fidelity’s dominance signals Wall Street’s bet. 🧐Energy FUD (Validity: Moderate, Longevity: 1–3 months, Impact: 4/10)
Criticism of Bitcoin’s energy use persists, but adoption by green-energy miners and El Salvador’s geothermal mining dilute the narrative’s impact.
🧐National Strategic Reserve (Validity: Speculative, Longevity: 6–12 months, Impact: 7/10)
Trump’s hints at a U.S. Bitcoin reserve could spark global adoption, but risks to USD dominance make it uncertain.
🧐Institutional FOMO (Validity: High, Longevity: 3–9 months, Impact: 8/10)
Hedge funds (Millennium, Capula) and corporates (MicroStrategy, Tesla) are accumulating, driving supply scarcity.
Contrarian Risk: Overhyped narratives (e.g., reserve speculation) could fizzle if regulatory or macroeconomic headwinds intensify. Monitor central bank rate decisions and geopolitical escalations.
5. Synthesis & Actionable Insights
👨‍💻Weighted Scorecard
👀Short-Term (1–4 Weeks): 7/10 (Bullish with Caution)
Pros: Strong ETF inflows, bullish MACD, positive volume balance, and institutional accumulation.Cons: RSI divergence, tariff-driven macro uncertainty, and potential overbought conditions.
👀Mid-Term (3–6 Months): 8.5/10 (Strongly Bullish)
Pros: MVRV below cycle peaks, robust hash rate, and ETF-driven demand. Historical cycles suggest 9–12 months of upside post-ATH breakout.Cons: Rising interest rates and geopolitical risks could cap gains.
👀High-Probability Scenarios
🧐Bullish Breakout (70% Probability):
Trigger: Break above $111,900 with sustained volume >100M BTC/day.Target: $123,000 (short-term), $156,000 (mid-term).Entry: Buy on pullback to $100K–$103K (support zone).Exit: Take profits at $123K or if RSI exceeds 80 on weekly charts.Risk: Stop-loss below $92K (10% risk).
👀Consolidation (20% Probability):
Trigger: Failure to break $111,900, with price oscillating between $97K–$111K.Target: Range-bound trading, accumulate at $97K–$100K.Entry: Buy dips near $97K, sell resistance at $111K.Risk: Stop-loss below $92K.
👀Bearish Correction (10% Probability):
Trigger: Break below $92K with rising exchange inflows and negative funding rates.Target: $70K (major support).Entry: Short on confirmed breakdown below $92K.Exit: Cover at $70K or if RSI drops below 30 (oversold).Risk: Stop-loss above $100K.

Underappreciated Risks
🧐Regulatory Reversal: A crackdown on ETFs or mining could trigger a 20–30% correction.
🧐Macro Headwinds: Accelerated rate hikes or a USD rally could dampen risk appetite.
🧐Euphoria Trap: Social media greed and over-leveraged futures positions may signal a local top.
Why Wall Street Is Buying?
Wall Street’s billion-dollar bet on Bitcoin is no secret—it’s driven by ETF inflows, supply scarcity, and a favorable macro backdrop. Technicals confirm a bullish setup, with $100K as a fortress of support and $123K–$156K as realistic targets. Fundamentals scream adoption, from corporate treasuries to nation-states. Sentiment is greedy but not euphoric, and on-chain metrics suggest we’re far from a cycle top.
Action: Accumulate on dips to $100K–$103K, with a stop-loss below $92K. Watch for a $111,900 breakout to confirm the next leg up. Stay vigilant for macro surprises, but the data says Bitcoin’s bull run has legs. 💪
Sources: Glassnode, CoinMetrics, Santiment, Forex.com, Investtech, CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Magazine.Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly. Let’s discuss your thoughts in the comments—where do you see Bitcoin headed? 🚀 #CryptoAnalysis

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استقرت أسواق الأسهم الأميركية، يوم الخميس، متجاوزةً انخفاضاتها الأولية، إذ تراجعت عوائد سندات الخزانة عن أعلى مستوياتها الأخيرة بعد إقرار مجلس النواب الأميركي مشروع قانون الضرائب والإنفاق الذي اقترحه الرئيس دونالد ترامب.
ووفقاً للبيانات الأولية انخفض مؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز 500 بمقدار 4.89 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.08 في المئة، ليغلق عند 5,839.72 نقطة، بينما ارتفع مؤشر ناسداك المركب بمقدار 45.56 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.27 في المئة، ليصل إلى 18,923.23 نقطة، وانخفض مؤشر داو جونز الصناعي بمقدار 11.37 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.03 في المئة ليصل إلى 41,849.07 نقطة.

دفعت المخاوف الأخيرة بشأن عجز الموازنة الأميركية عوائد سندات الخزانة للارتفاع وضغطت على الأسهم، لكن العوائد طويلة الأجل انخفضت يوم الخميس، ما سمح للأسهم بأخذ قسط من الراحة.
انخفض عائد سندات الخزانة الأميركية القياسية لأجل 10 سنوات بمقدار 5.4 نقطة أساس ليصل إلى 4.5 في المئة بعد أن سجل أعلى مستوى له منذ فبراير.
صوّت مجلس النواب الذي يسيطر عليه الجمهوريون بأغلبية ضئيلة على إقرار مشروع القانون الذي من شأنه أن يفي بالعديد من تعهدات ترامب الانتخابية لقاعدته السياسية، لكنه سيزيد من حجم الدين الأميركي البالغ 36.2 تريليون دولار بمقدار 3.8 تريليون دولار خلال العقد المقبل، وفقاً لمكتب الميزانية في الكونغرس، وهو جهة غير حزبية.
يُقيّم المستثمرون أيضاً تأثير رسوم ترامب الجمركية على الواردات الأميركية، بما في ذلك أسعار المستهلك.

Wall Street is growing increasingly tense as budget negotiations in Congress stall over a familiar sticking point: SALT tax deductions. A group of Republican lawmakers from high-tax states is holding up the passage of President Donald Trump’s much-promoted federal budget plan, demanding more generous deductions for state and local taxes.
The delay comes despite Trump’s active behind-the-scenes involvement. What was once billed as a “big, beautiful budget bill” has now become mired in internal GOP conflict, casting doubt on the initial goal to pass it ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.

📉 Rising Deficit Fears Rattle Bond Market
Investors aren’t just watching — they’re reacting. The standoff has led to renewed concerns about U.S. fiscal policy, with fears mounting that if a deal does emerge, it may bring a heavy cost: another major increase in the already staggering $36 trillion national deficit.
Financial analysts warn that such a bill could flood the bond market with more government debt, raising yields and pushing borrowing costs higher. UBS strategist Solita Marcelli noted that the final version is likely to include multiple amendments but could still swell the deficit by trillions over the next decade. That would strain demand for Treasuries at a time when confidence is already shaky.
Economist Stephen Juneau of Bank of America warned of a “buyer’s strike” in the bond market, noting that more supply combined with fading demand could trigger a sharp rise in interest rates. That, in turn, could pressure the U.S. dollar and send equities lower — a cascade of effects that might outweigh any growth the bill is designed to stimulate.

📊 Markets React as Uncertainty Builds
Markets have already started to slip. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ended a six-day winning streak, the Nasdaq posted its first loss in three sessions, and the Dow Jones dropped more than 100 points. Futures fell in early Wednesday trading, indicating continued volatility as traders brace for more uncertainty out of Washington.
The broader context doesn’t help: 30-year Treasury yields are hovering just below 5%, their highest level in years, and last week’s credit rating downgrade by Moody’s only adds to the pressure. Investors are becoming more cautious, and portfolios are being adjusted in real time as they await clarity.
Trump’s proposal may still pass in some revised form — but it’s clear that the path forward is increasingly fraught. Until Congress finds common ground on tax deductions, debt, and spending, Wall Street has little choice but to wait nervously. With no major economic reports due midweek, the spotlight remains fixed on Capitol Hill, where the stakes are rising with each passing hour.

#WallStreetNews , #stockmarket , #MarketVolatility , #worldnews

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

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في ظل متابعة حذرة من المستثمرين، انخفضت مؤشرات الأسهم الأميركية يوم الأربعاء، وارتفعت عوائد السندات، مع تصاعد الجدل حول خطة ترامب الضريبية التي قد تُضيف أعباءً جديدة على الدين العام الأميركي.

وانخفض مؤشر داو جونز الصناعي 352.28 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.83 في المئة، ليصل إلى 42,324.96 نقطة.
وخسر مؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز 500 نحو 31.84 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.54 في المئة، ليصل إلى 5,908.62 نقطة.
وخسر مؤشر ناسداك المركب 97.35 نقطة، أي بنسبة 0.51 في المئة، ليصل إلى 19,045.36 نقطة.

القطاعات في «ستاندرد آند بورز» تتراجع بقيادة التكنولوجيا
تراجعت جميع القطاعات الفرعية الأحد عشر في مؤشر إس آند بي، وكان قطاع التكنولوجيا والسلع الاستهلاكية من بين الأكثر تضرراً.
وانخفضت أسهم شركات التكنولوجيا مرتفعة التقييم، إذ يؤدي ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة إلى تقليص القيمة الحالية للأرباح المستقبلية.

وتصدر سهم «أمازون» الخسائر بين أسهم النمو الكبرى بانخفاض 1.5 في المئة.
وانخفض سهم شركة «يونايتد هيلث غروب» بنسبة 5.1 في المئة بعد تقرير من صحيفة «الغارديان» أشار إلى أن الشركة قدمت مكافآت مالية سرية لدور رعاية المسنين لتقليل تحويل المرضى إلى المستشفيات.
كما قامت «إتش إس بي سي» بخفض تصنيف السهم من «الاحتفاظ» إلى "تقليل الوزن".

تراجع في عدد الأسهم الصاعدة مقابل الهابطة
تجاوز عدد الأسهم المتراجعة نظيراتها الصاعدة بنسبة 3.93 إلى 1 في بورصة نيويورك، و2.98 إلى 1 في بورصة ناسداك.
سجّل مؤشر إس آند بي 500 أعلى مستويين جديدين في 52 أسبوعاً دون تسجيل أي مستويات دنيا جديدة، بينما سجل مؤشر ناسداك 16 قمة جديدة و17 قاعاً جديداً.

🔹 Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly, warning that U.S. tariffs are already impacting the economy.

🔹 The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation forecast to 2.8% while lowering economic growth projections.

🔹 Stock markets rebounded after the Fed confirmed plans for two rate cuts in 2025.

Trump: "The Fed Must Cut Rates ASAP"
President Donald Trump has once again called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing the negative effects of U.S. tariffs on the economy.
💬 "The Fed would be MUCH better off LOWERING RATES, as U.S. tariffs will (easily!) start flowing into the economy," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He added that April 2 marks "America's Liberation Day," hinting at potential changes in tariff policies.

Fed Holds Rates Steady but Warns of Economic Risks
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% during its Wednesday meeting but also adjusted its economic outlook:
📉 Expected GDP growth for 2025 was lowered to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2.1%.

📈 The inflation forecast increased to 2.8% from the earlier 2.5% projection.
This shift signals a growing risk of stagflation—a combination of slow economic growth and rising prices.

Fed Monitors Economic Risks, Markets React Positively
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation has started rising again, partially due to tariff policies.
💬 "We see a delay in inflation progress. Businesses and households are showing increasing uncertainty and concerns over potential economic slowdown."
Despite inflation concerns, the Fed still plans to cut rates twice by the end of 2025. The latest dot plot suggests rates could be at 3.9%, meaning a target range of 3.75%-4%.
📊 Market reaction was positive:

✔️ Dow Jones rose by 71 points.

✔️ S&P 500 gained 0.3%.

✔️ Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.4%.

💡 Stock indexes are attempting to recover from February losses. S&P 500 is currently 7% below its all-time high, but it may break its four-week losing streak.

What Are Investors Watching Next?
📌 Upcoming economic data will be crucial for the Fed's next moves.

📌 Unemployment claims and real estate sales reports are set to be released.

📌 Trump’s tariff policies could play a significant role in shaping the economic landscape.

💬 Do you think the Fed will cut rates sooner than expected? How will U.S. tariffs impact the markets? Share your thoughts! 💭📊

#DonaldTrump , #CryptoNewsCommunity , #FederalReserve , #WallStreetNews , #economy

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“