USBonds

🔹 After weeks of turbulence in the bond market, Wall Street is now laser-focused on Thursday’s $22 billion auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds — a key event closely watched by bond managers, economists, and investors alike.
This isn’t just another round of government debt issuance. It’s a test of how much faith the market still has in America’s long-term borrowing. The auction comes after a brutal stretch of volatility, particularly affecting the long end of the yield curve.
On Monday, U.S. Treasuries regained some ground following last week’s selloff. Yields fell by two to three basis points across the board, pulling back from Friday’s jump that was triggered by unexpectedly strong employment data, according to Bloomberg.
With Monday being relatively quiet in terms of economic news, market focus is now shifting to two events: Wednesday’s inflation report and Thursday’s bond auction — both seen as potential market movers.

Yields Retreat Slightly, but Long-Term Debt Anxiety Persists
The outlook for long-dated bonds remains shaky. Yields have been climbing steadily since April. The 30-year Treasury yield recently peaked at 5.15% on May 22 — its highest level since 2023. By Monday, it had eased to 4.95%, but remains elevated. The 10-year yield moved similarly, dropping to 4.48% — a breather, not a turnaround.
Lauren van Biljon, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, called Thursday’s auction a tone-setter for the rest of June. “This is going to be key and will truly define the mood for the month,” she told Bloomberg TV. “We know there’s a lot of concern about long-term funding.”
She’s not alone in her caution. Mike Riddell, a fund manager at Fidelity International, said he’s already repositioned for long bonds to underperform. The shift, he notes, is no longer just about interest rates — it's about the U.S. fiscal trajectory and market supply-demand dynamics.
“What’s troubling,” he added, “is that policymakers seem totally unmoved by recent bond market moves.”

From Monetary Policy to Fiscal Risk: The Narrative Has Shifted
That pivot away from Fed rate policy as the main market driver is no small shift. For years, investors obsessed over rate hikes and cuts. Now, the focus is on whether the U.S. can continue massive borrowing and spending without cracking investor confidence.
Smaller bond sales earlier this week — three-year and ten-year Treasuries — may offer additional signals, but all eyes are locked on Thursday’s big test.

Inflation Could Spoil the Party
Wednesday’s inflation data could throw everything off course. Bloomberg economists expect the May CPI to rise to 2.5% year-over-year, up from April’s 2.3%. That would be enough to rattle any long-bond holder.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, warned that rising inflation could reduce risk appetite and even blunt gains in the dollar. “Especially if it derails Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction,” she added.

30-Year Treasuries Now the Market’s Least Favorite?
According to Jack McIntyre of Brandywine Global, the upcoming bond auctions will be seen as a stress test for sentiment. “Every auction this week will be interpreted as a barometer for the market’s mood,” he said.
His view on long bonds? “I think 30-year U.S. Treasuries are the least liked right now.”
Issuing these bonds is getting costlier. The government is borrowing more, spending more, and paying more in interest. This combination has pushed the 30-year yield near its 20-year highs. Monday’s modest dip below 5% doesn’t change the larger, upward trend.
This week, inflation data and the outcome of the 30-year bond sale will show if investors are still willing to buy into America’s long-term debt story.

#WallStreetNews , #MarketVolatility , #USBonds , #worldnews , #Investing

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Article:
BREAKING: The Fed just scooped up $BTC 20.47 billion worth of 3-year Treasury bonds during the May 5 auction. Instantly, everyone started asking: “Is this the return of QE? Are they printing money again?
Let me break it down clearly:
No, this isn’t QE. It’s just reinvestment.
Let’s go deeper into what’s really happening here:
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What is SOMA?
SOMA stands for System Open Market Account. It’s the Fed’s portfolio of Treasury and agency securities, managed by the NY Fed. This account is used to implement monetary policy — and it’s important to understand that not every purchase from SOMA means “new money” is being pumped in.
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Why Did SOMA Buy at This Auction?
Simple: Reinvestment.
When bonds in SOMA’s portfolio mature, the Fed doesn’t just let that money sit — it reinvests the cash into new Treasuries to maintain the balance sheet size. This is pre-scheduled, non-competitive, and most importantly, not QE.
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So What Actually Happened?
At the May 5 auction:
$BTC 168.7B in total bids
$BTC 78.5B accepted
Of which $20.47B came from SOMA
The rest? Bought by dealers, funds, and other investors.
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Bottom Line:
This isn’t money printing.
SOMA’s activity is like rolling over a CD when it matures — not adding new funds, just keeping the same amount in play.
So no, QE hasn’t restarted.
But yes, it’s worth watching how reinvestments evolve over time, especially if the Fed pivots on rates or balance sheet policy down the road.

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#FederalReserve #QE #SOMA #BondMarket #USBonds #MoneyPrinting #MacroNews #MonetaryPolicy #ReinvestmentNotQE #FedWatch #3YearTreasury #CryptoMacro #FinancialNews

BREAKING: China is offloading U.S. Treasury bonds at an alarming rate — and this isn’t just another market move. It’s a financial power play with global consequences.

What’s Really Going On?
Beijing is dialing down its exposure to the U.S. dollar. The strategy?

Cut reliance on the dollar

Shield against geopolitical risks

Move reserves into gold and other strategic assets

Why You Should Care:
This aggressive bond dump is shaking the foundation of global finance. Here's what it means:

1. Rising U.S. Interest Rates
More bonds flooding the market = higher yields. That means more expensive borrowing for the U.S. government, businesses, and everyday consumers.

2. Pressure on the Dollar
A rapid sell-off could weaken the U.S. dollar. While it might boost exports short-term, inflation could spike and financial markets could wobble.

3. Confidence Crisis
Global investors don’t like surprises. If trust in U.S. debt starts cracking, we could see volatility ripple across stock markets, currencies, and commodities.

The Bigger Picture:
This is no random sell-off — it’s a calculated geopolitical maneuver. As U.S.–China tensions heat up, Beijing is using its financial leverage to make a statement.

Final Thought:
When the world’s #2 economy makes a strategic financial shift, the ripple turns into a wave. Keep your eyes on the bond market — because this storm is just beginning.

#China #USDollar #USBonds #EconomicShock #FinanceNews #Geopolitics #GoldMoves