monusdt

$MON
MONUSDT — 15m
Context / quick read

Price is below EMA7 (0.04523), EMA25 (0.04594) and EMA99 (0.04526) → structure = bearish on 15m.

RSI ~30 → oversold but not yet reversal-confirmed.

MACD negative and histogram expanding downward → momentum remains bearish.

Volume has been higher on the sell candles → distribution selling.

Recent local high: 0.04944. Recent local low / micro-floor: 0.04419. Current price ≈ 0.04457.

Pro conclusion: Primary edge = trend continuation short. Longs only for small, high-probability scalp with strict risk control and multi-confirmation.

Key structural levels (order book + structure)

Resistance cluster (R1–R3):

R1 = 0.04508 – 0.04530 (EMA area / immediate rejection zone)

R2 = 0.04620 – 0.04650

R3 = 0.04730 – 0.04944

Support cluster (S1–S3):

S1 = 0.04419 (recent wick low)

S2 = 0.04350 – 0.04380

S3 = 0.04250 – 0.04280 (deeper structural support)

Trade set-ups (exact entries, SL, TPs — pro rules)

Use limit entries for precision. Use OCO orders where possible (limit profit + stop loss). Size so the risk per trade is within your rule (suggest 0.25%–1.0% of equity per trade).

A — Primary (High-probability) SHORT — trend continuation

Trigger / Entry: Short on pullback/rejection into 0.04508 – 0.04570 (tight zone around EMA cluster) or market short on a clean 15m bearish rejection candle from this zone.

Stop-Loss (hard): 0.04640 (above local resistance & recent micro high).

Take Profit levels:

TP1 = 0.04419 (conservative — first structure)

TP2 = 0.04350 (scale 50%)

TP3 = 0.04280 (final, if momentum continues)

Risk/Reward: Aim to scale into profits: 30–40% size at TP1, reduce to 20–30% at TP2, hold remainder to TP3.

Execution nuance: If entry fills on a limit and price snaps down with increasing volume, add a second tranche only if the 1-minute shows aggressive selling (tape + larger fills).

B — Breakdown short (momentum execution)

Trigger: Close below 0.04410 on 15m with rising sell volume.

Entry: market or aggressive limit at break.

SL: 0.04485 (retest fail level)

TP: 0.04350 → 0.04250 zone

Edge: Fast execution; use smaller size if slippage risk is high.

C — Counter-trend LONG (scalp only — minimal exposure)

Entry: Small scalp long only if price shows a bullish 15m engulf / hammer + decreasing sell volume in 0.04420 – 0.04470.

SL: 0.04395 (very tight)

TP1: 0.04523 (EMA7)

TP2: 0.04620 (EMA25 area) — exit fully only if momentum shifts and MACD histogram turns positive.

Size: 10–25% of normal size (this is a counter trade).

Confirmation checklist before taking a trade (PRO ONLY)

Candle structure: clear rejection / bearish engulf / continuation candle on 15m.

Volume: Confirm direction with volume (sell volume higher for shorts; buying volume contraction on bounce longs).

Momentum: MACD histogram still negative (for shorts) or showing shrink + cross for long entry confirmation.

Higher timeframe alignment: 1H should not be strongly bullish; if 1H is bullish, reduce position size.

Orderbook / tape: if available, watch for aggressive taker sells at support for added confirmation.

Position sizing & risk (rigid rules)

Risk per trade = 0.25% – 1.0% of account (choose based on edge & market conditions).

Position size formula: Size = (Account equity × Risk%) / (|Entry − SL|)

Example: $10,000 account, 0.5% risk → $50 risk. Entry 0.04550, SL 0.04640 → differential = 0.00090. Size = 50 / 0.00090 = 55,555 units. (Adjust for contract tick size / margin.)

Rationale: keep max drawdown controlled and allow multiple independent opportunities.

(Be exact with your own account currency / contract size when calculating.)

Trade management rules (pro)

Use OCO orders (profit target + stop loss) to avoid emotion.

Scale out: First partial take at 50% of target, tighten stop to breakeven + small buffer, second partial at next target.

If trade converts to a losing scenario: respect stop—do not widen except with a documented, pre-planned reason (e.g., overnight macro event).

If price approaches TP1 but momentum stalls: tighten stop to entry or to a small profit.

Keep a trade log with entry, exit, reasoning, and mistakes.

Invalidation / escape map

Primary short invalidation: Clean close above 0.04650 – 0.04680 on 15m with strong base-building and volume → consider closing short and avoid chasing new shorts.

Primary long invalidation: Any long failing to reclaim EMA7 (0.04523) and closing back below S1 → exit.

Scenarios & contingency (3 quick playbooks)

Bear continuation (most likely): Short on EMA rejection → price hits TP1/TP2. Reduce size and trail stops.

Slow bleed to deeper support: If breakdown below 0.04410 with low initial volume, avoid immediate add; wait for a clean 15m breakdown + increased volume.

False break / reversal: If a wide-range green candle reclaims EMA25 and MACD turns up on 15m, cut shorts, flip to scalp longs only after verification on 1H.

Quick technical triggers (for algo or fast manual execution)

Short entry algo trigger: Price enters [0.04508–0.04570] AND 15m close < EMA7 AND MACD histogram negative AND sell volume > previous 3 bars average.

Breakdown short trigger: 15m close < 0.04410 AND volume > 1.5× prior 15m average.

Long scalp trigger: 15m hammer/engulf + RSI < 35 + decreasing sell volume.

Journal checklist (post-trade)

Why did I take the trade? (setup + rules triggered)

Exact entry, SL, TP, size, and R:R.

Emotions / hesitation?

Execution issues (slippage, partial fills).

Outcome & lesson.

Short, factual, for professional audience — no hype:

MONUSDT (15m) — Professional Read
• Market structure: Bearish — price < EMA7/25/99.
• Primary plan: Short on EMA cluster rejection 0.04508–0.04570. SL 0.04640. Targets 0.04419 / 0.04350 / 0.04280.
• Breakdown trigger: 15m close < 0.04410 + rising sell volume → accelerate shorts to 0.0425.
• Countertrade: Small scalp long only 0.04420–0.04470, SL 0.04395, TP1 0.04523 (EMA7). Size < 25% normal.
• Trade rules: use OCO, 0.25–1% risk per trade, scale out, trail to breakeven at TP1. Invalidation: 15m close > 0.0468.
Trade plan logged. Execute with discipline.
#MONUSDT $MON