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Dogecoin finds support at $0.17 as bearish momentum fades, while on-chain and derivatives data hint at a potential bullish reversal toward $0.20.
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As top cryptocurrencies hold key support levels, meme coins have been on a downward trajectory. The segment’s market cap has dropped 20% over the past 30 days, now at $54.63 billion.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin appears to be forming a base at $0.17. With lower price rejections and rising optimism in the derivatives market, could Dogecoin be gearing up for a bullish comeback?
Dogecoin Price Analysis
On the daily chart, Dogecoin’s price action shows a base forming near the $0.17 support zone. Notably, Dogecoin has previously rebounded from this level in April, May, and June.

Following a recent bounce from a weekly low of $0.1639 to $0.1711, Dogecoin shows signs of an extended recovery.
The MACD and signal lines are nearing a bullish crossover, while the daily RSI has risen after reversing from the oversold zone. This suggests a short-term uptick in bullish sentiment, supporting the potential for a price rebound.
According to Fibonacci retracement levels, a daily close above the 23.60% mark could push Dogecoin toward the psychological resistance at $0.20. Conversely, a close below the current support zone could open the door to a decline toward $0.15.
Analyst Spots Bullish Crossover Ahead of Potential Dogecoin Reversal
Supporting the bullish outlook, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade highlighted the potential for a major price turnaround. According to the analyst, a bullish crossover between the 10-week and 20-week simple moving averages (SMAs) is approaching.
Historically, this crossover has led to Dogecoin price surges ranging from 200% to 300%. As Dogecoin nears this technical signal once again, the odds of a significant uptrend increase.

Dogecoin Derivatives
In the derivatives market, optimism around Dogecoin has notably improved as the asset establishes a strong support base. Historical price action suggests a reversal may be imminent, and recent data shows increased buying activity over the past 24 hours.
Coinglass data reveals that open interest has risen 1.83%, reaching $1.82 billion. Additionally, the funding rate has spiked to 0.0055%.
Despite the long/short ratio remaining neutral, long liquidations have nearly doubled those of shorts: $910K vs. $407K. This indicates that traders are leaning toward a bullish outlook.

DisClamier:
This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect @Lachakari_Crypto opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. @Lachakari_Crypto is not responsible for any financial losses.
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Analyst identifies Dogecoin weekly ADX mirroring 2020 setup ahead of its last major rally.
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Notably, Dogecoin (DOGE) has declined by 2.22% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.1737, and remains down by 9.08% over the last seven days.
However, according to a recent analysis, the Average Directional Index (ADX) on Dogecoin’s weekly chart may be pointing to a developing trend shift. The ADX, used to measure trend strength, is now replicating a historical setup from late 2020 that preceded a major rally. 
ADX Weekly Setup Mirrors 2020 Pre-Rally Conditions
Tardigrade, a crypto analyst, has presented a breakdown of Dogecoin’s ADX behavior over time. His analysis shows that the current ADX pattern on the weekly timeframe closely resembles the structure seen between 2019 and 2020. 

Back then, DOGE’s ADX started with a lower launch, indicated with a green arrow, then formed two mid-level peaks followed by a lower low, before surging to a top. This move aligned with Dogecoin’s breakout from $0.0025 in November 2020 to nearly $0.70 by May 2021.
Fast-forward to the 2024–2025 period, the ADX has again launched from a low, then formed two mid-level peaks—first when DOGE reached $0.22 in May 2024, and then $0.46 in December 2024. After those peaks, the ADX dipped to a lower low, which Tardigrade illustrated with a purple arrow on his chart. 
Currently, the ADX is rising again. A projected blue circle placed above the indicator suggests an anticipated breakout, which historically marked the top of a bullish trend. This potential breakout, if mirrored from the past, coincides with a speculative DOGE price around $4.50—about 2,491% above the current price.
MVRV Score Signals DOGE Still in Bear Market Territory
Meanwhile, another analyst, Kevin, has highlighted Dogecoin’s MVRV score as still being within bear market territory. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has reached only 3.5 in this cycle.  🔁

In contrast, DOGE peaked at an MVRV of 11 during 2017 and 16 during 2021, both of which marked full-scale bull runs. According to Kevin’s observation, this relatively low MVRV figure indicates that Dogecoin and the broader altcoin market have yet to experience a sustained upward cycle in the current market environment.
The analyst links this delay in altcoin performance to continued restrictive monetary policy and post-pandemic central bank adjustments. These macroeconomic conditions have, in Kevin’s view, contributed to a more measured pace for altcoin momentum, delaying the kind of explosive rallies seen in prior cycles.
He stated that this situation will eventually shift, allowing altcoins to gain momentum. He added that investors should aim to buy altcoins at lower valuations and avoid emotional attachment to their holdings.
DisClamier:
This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect @Lachakari_Crypto opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. @Lachakari_Crypto is not responsible for any financial losses.
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