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The crypto market hit "snooze" over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) shuffled aimlessly between $86,000 and $88,000 and the CoinDesk 20 Index (C20) barely budged. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 80 Index managed a modest flex with a 1% gain, indicating pockets of strength in the broader altcoin market.

Zooming out, the picture looks even more lackluster. Bitcoin is down 7% year-to-date, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, that unexciting, fixed-income instrument is up 2.5%.

What this means is that parking your cash in boring old bonds would have been the smarter move this year. And that's despite truckloads of BTC buying by digital asset treasuries. Sorry, maximalists.

From a macro perspective, the outperformance of the 10-year bond, a perennial safe haven, rings alarm bells for other risk assets, including stocks. This plays right into the theme we discussed last week: Institutional outflows from the spot bitcoin ETFs may be the smoke before the expected macro firestorm.

Sure, the script could change ahead of the year-end, especially if the Federal Reserve delivers an outright dovish message with the expected 25 basis point rate cut early next month, sending the Dollar Index (DXY) lower. For now, however, the index is looking to establish a foothold above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), unfazed by the dovish Fed hopes.

It's not as though options flows are offering any directional clarity.

Early this week, we saw a spike in hedging activity around the $80,000 bitcoin put, followed by hefty block trade hinting at a possible range reboot above $100,000 by year-end. On Tuesday, a wild $220,000 call purchase seemed bullish at first, but it was paired with a $40K call buy, signaling the trader’s real bet is on volatility fireworks, Greeks.Live told CoinDesk.

All this points to a challenging trading environment in the near-term.

That said, one piece of positive news has gone largely unnoticed: the new U.S. bank rule reducing capital requirements for low-risk assets like Treasuries. The capital reduction is seen freeing up liquidity at banks, potentially boosting lending and boosting dealers' ability to intervene in government bond markets during times of stress.

James Thorne, the chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, described the move as a clear sign of "deregulation on the way." Stay alert!

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of a Thanksgiving week rally on Monday, almost reclaiming $90,000 and offering a ray of hope that the weekend's recovery from below $85,000 may turn into something a bit more sustained. The optimism was short-lived, with BTC dropping back to $87,000 during the European morning Tuesday.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also looked like it was getting into the holiday spirit rising almost to 3,000 before retreating around 3% to 2,485.84, showing that across the crypto market, buyers are operating with caution rather than conviction.

Part of the explanation for this sedate mood could in the #US holiday period. With Thanksgiving two days away, liquidity can be expected to dry up and risk-taking to minimize, according to Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at #Australia 'n digital asset investment firm Zerocap.

Ibrahim noted that during last week's volatility, crypto traded as a high-beta proxy to weakness in the U.S. tech industry.

"The key dynamic is that all of BTC’s weekly negative PNL came from the U.S. trading session, while APAC and #Eu ’s hours were mostly flat-to-positive," he wrote in an emailed comment, using an acronym for profit and loss. "That leaves little doubt that both the global credit crunch and the U.S. equity unwind are driving the drag."

Far from establishing itself as a haven from broader financial choppy waters, as its moniker as "digital gold" might indicate, bitcoin is again resembling the nervous younger sibling of the U.S. tech industry.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in the "extreme fear" cellar on a rating of 15, albeit a slight improvement from yesterday's 12. It fell to a yearly low of 10 on Saturday. This movement does not guarantee that the floor is in, but it reinforces that the next directional moves are likely to be more about macro shifts than trader vibes.

Another cause for bulls to put on a brave face could lie in the average funding rate, a measure of the cost of holding both long and short positions. This slipped negative for the first time in a month and indicates an overabundance of bearish bets and therefore the potential for a classic short squeeze.

This could spell a continued price recovery as we head into December, provided macroeconomic conditions don't spoil it. Stay alert!

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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The restarted Senate is moving forward with certain crypto initiatives, but how much time is left compared to how much work is left, really?

Less than 40 days
The #narrative
Now that Congress is back from the government shutdown, all eyes are on how it will proceed on crypto issues. There are a few components to this: Mike Selig's nomination to run the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, market structure legislation and other crypto matters.

Why it #Matter 's
Time is starting to run out for the crypto industry to lock in its wins from the 2024 election. While the GENIUS Act was a strong start for crypto businesses, and the Securities and Exchange Commission and CFTC are continuing their efforts to create new rules for the industry, the market structure bill is still far from completion. Congress has less than 40 days left this year and just a handful of months next year before it disperses for the midterm elections.

Breaking it #down
The Senate Agriculture Committee voted 13-11 to advance CFTC Chair nominee Mike Selig's name to the full Senate for a floor vote; if he secures a majority of votes, he should get sworn in shortly after. This may happen in the coming weeks.
Selig said crypto is an important issue for the CFTC to look into, speaking to specific issues like onchain markets and the role of intermediaries, among other things.
"The CFTC has a critical mission to protect these markets," he said at his hearing on Wednesday. "This is a real opportunity to develop a framework that can allow for software developers to thrive, for new exchanges to crop up that are going to protect investors and have the types of controls that you would expect in an exchange and make sure that we have the right disclosure requirements that we have typically in our financial markets."
The Senate Banking Committee also advanced the nomination of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Acting Chair Travis Hill to be the regulator's fully confirmed chair to the Senate, among other nominees.
But the main event — market structure legislation — remains largely in the same public position it was in last week.
As noted last week, the Agriculture Committee's new draft includes a few provisions that may prove controversial, including one touching on conflicts of interest. This discussion draft will clearly see updates before the committee can hold a markup and vote. The Trump family's various crypto businesses are unlikely to leave Democrats' focus either — Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General for information about allegations that the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial sold some of its tokens to "illicit actors," including in sanctioned regions.
The Banking Committee may be closer to a markup — while the committee hasn't published a revised draft bill in a while, negotiations do appear to be ongoing between Republicans and Democrats.
Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the Banking Committee, said Democrats had been "stalling" the bill's progress in an interview with Fox News' Maria Bartiromo earlier this week.
"The Democrats have been stalling and stalling and stalling because they don't want President Trump to make America the crypto capital of the world," he said. "They don't want to give them the win. It's not just for President Trump. It's for the American people, single moms like the one that raised me."
Still, he said the bill might still get to the Senate floor in early 2026.
"Next month, we believe we can mark up in both committees and get this to the floor of the Senate early next year, so that President Trump will sign the legislation making America the crypto capital of the World, protecting consumers while increasing the likelihood of America being the most dominant economic power for the next 100 years," Scott said.
Congress has a limited amount of time left in the year to get anything done — lawmakers will be out of session next week for Thanksgiving, and will have just a few weeks in December before Christmas and New Year's.

Source: Binance News / Bitdegree / #CoinDesk / Coinmarketcap / Cointelegraph / Decrypt

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