Many have started to believe that the alt season is over but if we look at the data objectively, there are clear signs that the altcoin phase isn’t truly finished.
It’s just being held back by global macroeconomic factors.
Data Speaks: Altcoins Are Moving, but Haven’t Exploded Yet
According to the Altcoin Season Index (ASI), the current reading sits around 63, up sharply from the lows of 25–30 just a few months ago.
The threshold for a full alt season is ≥ 75, meaning statistically, we haven’t reached the euphoric phase yet.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance
$BTC remains between 59–61%, indicating that most institutional capital is still “parked safely” in Bitcoin.
However, historically when BTC dominance stagnates above 60%, the next 6–12 months often bring massive capital rotation into altcoins, as seen in the 2017 and 2021 cycles.
Macro Factors: The Fed, Liquidity, and the “Game of Patience”
Global monetary policy remains a key driver.
The Federal Reserve has started signaling the end of quantitative tightening (QT) meaning global liquidity could begin to ease over the next few quarters.
Historically, whenever the Fed pauses rate hikes or begins to loosen policy, risk assets including altcoins tend to rally strongly within 3–6 months.
But as long as rates stay elevated and geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East and Asia) remain unresolved, major investors prefer to wait and see.
Altcoins are stagnant not because the cycle is over — but because big money is still waiting for clearer direction.
Market Sentiment: Retail Gives Up, Whales Strategize
Retail capitulation often marks the beginning of a new phase.
Currently, retail interest in altcoins has dropped 40–50% compared to early this year.
At the same time, large wallets (whales) are quietly accumulating particularly in layer-1, AI-crypto, and DePIN projects.
In other words, the “alt season is dead” narrative might simply be a psychological setup a way to make retail exit before the real capital rotation begins.
Conclusion & Outlook
Is the alt season really over?
Not yet. But this one will be very different from the previous cycles.
We’re in a transitional phase where:
Global liquidity is starting to shift direction,
Bitcoin’s dominance is gradually weakening,
And new narratives like AI, DePIN, and RWA are shaping the next generation of altcoin momentum.
If global monetary policies begin to ease by mid-2025, the peak of the next alt season is likely to occur around Q2–Q3 2026, in line with crypto’s historical four-year cycle pattern.
Final Note
This market isn’t about speculative euphoria anymore it’s digital natural selection.
Alt season may not be over,
but this time, it will unfold in a very different way.
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